What a way for the streak to end, taken down by a green ogre. Shrek only dropped 38 percent, but Sex and the City 2‘s decision to open on Thursday likely cost it the weekend. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
|How many people had Shrek Forever After winning the weekend? That would be zero, at least amongst our predictors. So I don’t feel too foolish, I was in good company.
As for Shrek Forever After, the budget was $165m, and it stands around $160m in worldwide cume. If it can stay strong $200m in domestic is a given, and the franchise is strong overseas, with the last two films earning more internationally.
Essentially, a nice comeback out of Shrek Forever After. If it beats Marmaduke next weekend it’s going to take Karate Kid to knock it off … but that will be $50m later.
Result: $43.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 and my prediction of $39.74 million was $3.56m off for a percentage error of 8.22%.
It’s made $46m so far, you’ve got to think that if they’d opened on Friday they would have taken the weekend. Still, even if they’d done that, they would have opened below the original’s $57m. Which means people 1) either listened to the reviews or 2) are sick of movies about consumerism. I figured the down economy would help, because people need the fantasy. Clearly, I figured incorrectly.
Result: $32.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $62 million, which is $29.9m off for a 93.15% error.
Another disaster on a $200m budget. Domestically, with heated summer competition, they are looking at a number around $100m. Yikes. However, this will do better overseas, as there is absolutely nothing to get lost in the translation. That’s the benefit to having no story whatsoever.
Result: $30.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $51.04 million, which is $20.94m off for a 69.57% error.
$35m away from passing Iron Man‘s total.
Result: $16 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $12.77 million, which is $3.23m off for a 20.19% error.
Hey, that’s a bingo! I just threw on the Indy 500 and Mark Wahlberg is getting to ride along behind the race. For some reason, I’m now jealous. I guess I just like being driven around.
Robin Hood has done well internationally to crank that cume up to $237m. Still, not enough.
Result: $10.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $10.3 million and I was exactly right!
Anyone see a production budget on this? That $37m cume looks healthy to me.
Result: $5.9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.41 million, which is $0.51m off for a 8.64% error.
This weekend ended up a lot like last weekend, $145m for the top twelve. So there was no Memorial Day bounce this year, and the weekend was down around $25m from last year.
Result: $2.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $1.68 million, which is $0.52m off for a 23.64% error.
Last year’s weekend winner was Night the Museum 2. So I guess one of us should have called Shrek 4 eh?
Result: $1.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $1.44 million, which is $0.26m off for a 15.29% error.
When will then next SNL film be? A decade?
Result: $1.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $2.42 million, which is $1.02m off for a 72.86% error.
As I mentioned, this slot was ripe for the picking. $447m worldwide for How to Train Your Dragon, it’s good money if you can make it.
Result: $1 million
My rank: Not Ranked
How say you? I’d say I’m about a seven on the 1-10 shocked scale re: Shrek Forever After. I really thought the Sex and the City franchise was a growth industry. Does this mean we’ve seen the end of the girls? The budget was only $100m, so they aren’t completely doomed just yet, are they?
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