Moana saw a disappointing opening weekend at the box office, revealing a bigger problem Disney will have going forward with live-action remakes.
It’s only been one weekend, but Moana is trending toward becoming a box office bomb. The film, which stars Catherine Laga’aia as Moana and Dwayne Johnson as Maui, opened to $43 million in the U.S. and $95 million worldwide. That’s way below the projected $130 million Disney was hoping for.
Compared to other Disney live-action remake failures, Moana’s $43 million is similar to Snow White’s $42 million in 2025 and Dumbo’s $46 million in 2019. According to Deadline, Disney stands to lose between $100 and $125 million on Moana, and that’s if the movie reaches $250 million at the box office.
Why Disney is mistaking nostalgia for demand
Whenever a movie fails, ask this question first: Why was this movie made? Answering that reveals a bigger problem about Disney’s live-action remake strategy. Releasing Moana less than two years after 2024’s Moana 2 was a severe miscalculation. The demand for a live-action Moana wasn’t there, but Disney still went on and made the film anyway.
Nostalgia takes time. Audiences need to miss characters before they can return on the big screen. Lilo & Stitch, the 2025 live-action remake of the 2002 animated movie, grossed $1 billion worldwide last year. Disney clearly catered to millennial audiences who grew up with that movie, capitalizing on the nostalgia built over 20 years.
Why would there be urgency for a live-action remake of a movie that is less than 10 years old? Once Moana 2 overperformed at the box office, Disney should have delayed this movie at least one more year. The live-action Moana was announced before Moana 2 was transformed into a movie. Still, Disney should have pushed Moana 2 to 2027 instead of competing in theaters against Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters.
If Disney wants to continue making live-action remakes of animated properties, the studio must be more careful with its selections. They have to discover value with older animated properties, and right now, that might not exist. Something like The Incredibles has huge value, but a third animated movie is coming in a few years, which will take a potential live-action remake off the table for the foreseeable future. Disney would benefit from patience and monitoring the demand for its older properties. Only then would it warrant a live-action remake.
I doubt they will rush into remaking a movie not even a decade old. Disney’s next big test will be the live-action remake of Tangled, based on the 2010 animated movie. It’s not as fresh as Moana, but it’s not as old as Lilo & Stitch. It’ll be interesting to see how that nostalgia plays with fans.
