Next week I see Invictus, Nine and Avatar and if this week’s screening of The Lovely Bones hadn’t been bumped I would pretty much have the major Oscar contenders in the bag. I recently received screeners for Broken Embraces and The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus which means The Last Station and Crazy Heart are really the only other two films evading me at the moment. Even though I would like to see what all the fuss about The White Ribbon is, but due time should take care of that.
Now, before we get to the predictions you should know we are coming up on the time of year when critic circles and organizations begin handing out their top ten lists and today will see the first of those lists as the National Board of Review will be doling out their awards later today. Last year Slumdog Millioniare won the org’s Best Picture prize and you better believe people will be eying their pick this year even though they will be gently nudging a few of their picks such as last year’s award list naming Gran Torino for Best Actor (Clint Eastwood) and Best Original Screenplay (Nick Schenk). As we now know, the love for Torino — Oscar-wise — did not enjoy a trickle down effect.
So what film will the NBR look at as their top dog? Having awarded two Eastwood films in the past (Mystic River and Letters from Iwo Jima) and an overall affinity for the Hollywood icon, I wouldn’t count out Invictus, but I see it more as a top ten nod rather than a top prize. My prediction goes to Up In the Air with The Hurt Locker as a runner-up. However, I feel like I’m throwing darts when it comes to this prediction so who knows? If you’re wondering why I approach this prediction with bewilderment, Ryan Adams at Awards Daily has put together a list of the NBR’s more confusing picks over the years.
By my count the list following that should be the Washington D.C. critics, which will announce their awards on December 7 and from my understanding, the Broadcast Film Critics Association is voting this week and will be announcing their nominees on December 14. So there’s a lot to look forward to as we are just now dipping into the pool and will soon be waist deep.
Moving on, let’s get to the current batch of predictions.
So Up In the Air is my current prediction to take it all and Reitman also tops my list of directors, which saw a bit of a shake-up as I moved James Cameron (Avatar) into the fourth slot and Eastwood (Invictus) down to number five.
Since last updating you, my Best Actor and Best Actress categories haven’t changed with Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) and Carey Mulligan (An Education) leading those categories respectively, but I think both George Clooney (Up In the Air) and Gabourey Sidibe (Precious) are shoestring second place contenders and could easily pull themselves into the top slot.
The top spots for Best Supporting Actor and Actress remain the same as well with my picks of Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) and Mo’Nique (Precious).
Next, as I mentioned recently, I am also doing some predicting over at The Los Angeles Times and on top of the categories mentioned above they are also asking for predictions in Best Animated Feature, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay so I felt I may as well hand those out here as well and see what you all think as far as those categories go. So here they are, in ranked order:
Best Animated Feature
- Up
- The Fantastic Mr. Fox
- Coraline
- Ponyo
- The Princess and the Frog
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Up in the Air
- Precious
- An Education
- The Lovely Bones
- Invictus
Best Original Screenplay
- The Hurt Locker
- A Serious Man
- Up
- Inglourious Basterds
- The Messenger
You can check out all my latest Oscar Predictions by visiting The Contenders or clicking on any one of the following links to get started. Each opens in a new window so just close the window to return to this post.
Remember to bookmark The Contenders and/or subscribe to the Contenders RSS Feed for continuous awards updates.
