A perennial fan-favorite comedy has emerged as a new frontrunner in new 2026 Emmys predictions. Early odds have landed on HBO Max’s Hacks, in part because the series won the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series in 2024 and has finished its fifth and final season, but it could face an upset by a contender that has been in the mix for a while. Though the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards is still several months out, as it’s slated to air on September 14, its nominations voting round ended earlier this week on June 22. The full list of nominations for the 2026 Emmys will be revealed in a few weeks on July 8.
Abbott Elementary is leading several categories in new Emmy nomination predictions
The ABC comedy series Abbott Elementary has become an early favorite in multiple categories in nomination predictions for the 2026 Emmys, according to a poll on Gold Derby (as of June 25). This poll combines votes from editors, experts, and users, and it’s updated from earlier results from April that has starkly different odds.
The list’s top ten for Outstanding Comedy Series nominations have Abbott Elementary in the lead over other contenders, like Hacks and Shrinking:
- Abbott Elementary – 79.51%
- Hacks – 74.56%
- Only Murders in the Building – 73.63%
- Shrinking – 71.08%
- Margo’s Got Money Troubles – 66.51%
- The Bear – 63.42%
- The Comeback – 61.10%
- Widow’s Bay – 50.58%
- Nobody Wants This – 30.32%
- Rooster – 13.46%
Meanwhile, two actresses from the ABC show are leading the pack as well for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series and Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. For her performance as Janine Teagues, Quinta Brunson previously won the Emmy for Comedy Lead Actress in 2023 during a year when Jean Smart was not nominated since Hacks skipped a year. And now Brunson is ahead on the top ten list in the same category for nominations in 2026:
- Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) – 74.75%
- Jean Smart (Hacks) – 71.69%
- Elle Fanning (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 70.36%
- Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback) – 69.45%
- Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) – 46.85%
- Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) – 29.06%
- Jenna Ortega (Wednesday) – 15.15%
- Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale) – 9.44%
- Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) – 7.95%
- Rachel Sennott (I Love L.A.) – 3.81%
The poll likewise reveals that Janelle James, who plays principal Ava Coleman, holds the top spot for nominations in Comedy Outstanding Supporting Actress. James has been nominated four times for her role in the show, but she has lost the category to her fellow cast member in Sheryl Lee Ralph in 2022, The Bear’s Ayo Edibiri in 2023, The Bear’s Liza Colón-Zayas in 2024, and Hannah Einbinder in 2025. But maybe this will be her year.
- Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) – 81.22%
- Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) – 76.82%
- Jessica Williams (Shrinking) – 72.59%
- Michelle Pfeiffer (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 71.15%
- Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) – 69.37%
- Megan Stalter (Hacks) – 53.55%
- Kate O’Flynn (Widow’s Bay) – 37.39%
- Carol Burnett (Palm Royale) – 23.94%
- Ashley Padilla (Saturday Night Live) – 22.42%
- Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear) – 15.99%
That said, these lists are focused on the Emmy 2026 nominations and are not about who will outright win their categories. Corresponding bets on Kalshi have Hacks sweeping these same three categories, with Hacks winning Outstanding Comedy Series at 69%, Jean Smart winning Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy) at 71%, and Hannah Einbinder winning Outstanding Supporting Actress (Comedy) at 64%.
The poll has Abbott Elementary’s Tyler James Williams in the hunt for a nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actor (Comedy), sitting in sixth place behind leader Harrison Ford for Shrinking. It gives Taraji P. Henson an outside shot of being nominated for Outstanding Guest Actress (Comedy).
Abbott Elementary was officially renewed for a sixth season in April.
