Neighbors could be a dark-horse winner this weekend, the stars have truly aligned. The trailers make the film look surprisingly good, even though it’s nothing of the sort (Brad would probably disagree based on his review). However, it could pull in key demos such as date night, bro night, and those looking to recapture the magic of Old School. It only needs to pull off this chicanery for one weekend, and my $40.0 million flat prediction might still be under where it ends up.
Of course The Amazing Spider-Man 2 could also win the weekend, but it’s no longer the prohibitive favorite. It will face a prodigious drop off, in the vein of all superhero films, as the crowds don’t wait for those. Waiting is for suckers, eh? From $100 million dollar forecasts all the way down to $36.6 million for its second weekend? You betcha!
When it comes to Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return I know nothing about it other than it’s an animation with a halfway decent title. Who is seeing this? Do families just head to the theater without any awareness whatsoever of what they want to buy a ticket for? Even if they did, wouldn’t they just go with Rio 2 instead? So many questions surround this whole enterprise, and I’m definitely bearish on this film. Can’t go higher than $7.7 million.
I guess Moms’ Night Out is built around Mother’s Day? Regardless, it’s another lightly marketed film that shouldn’t have much impact on the box office. We’re predicting it because it’s new, but without screenings, reviews, or really any buzz whatsoever (unless it’s all happening on channels I don’t watch).
Bonus task: someone look at this list and be the first one tell me in the comments when the last time was TriStar had two films in the box office top ten. I’ll send you something nice.
Back to predicting, I expect Moms’ Night Out to sink like a stone. $4.5 million is my small ball call, and it’s limbo time for this one. The ground floor is the limit.
Current Record: 14-53-2 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Neighbors: $39.8 million
- Legend of Oz: Dorothy’s Return: $9.2 million
- Mom’s Night Out: $5.1 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
