I have pretty much seen all the major studio releases for 2014 at this point, though I still have a few smaller films such as Two Days, One Night, Ida and Cake still to explore when it comes to the still hotly contested female acting races at the Oscars as well as the Foreign Language contenders, a field I will never be able to catch up with. Still, when it comes to Best Picture I think I’m finally starting to get a bead on what we’re looking at and can speak with a little more confidence now that I have Unbroken and Selma under my belt, not to mention this morning’s Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations, though those threw a little more of a wrench in the works than I expected. Let’s have a look…
Let me begin by distancing myself from a Best Picture. It won’t. It will be nominated but it won’t be winning. As far as other categories are concerned, it also won’t be winning Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography or Best Director, two categories I could actually see it missing out on a nomination altogether, even though I still think the high profile nature of Jole and all the talent behind the camera will keep it in the hunt for nominations in those categories.
As for Selma, forget the SAG snub (apparently they didn’t screen it in time), it’s a knockout. It’s timely, superbly crafted and performed. It’s my new frontrunner for Best Picture despite the fact it didn’t get an ensemble nomination from the SAG committee and star David Oyelowo and supporting actor Tom Wilkinson didn’t receive nominations. In fact, it was all I could do to not move Oyelowo to the top of my Best Actor predictions. He remains in #2, a position where he’ll battle Michael Keaton (Birdman) all season long while the likes of Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) battle it out for the final slot in the category where Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) are your fellow locks.
Speaking of Redmayne and Cumberbatch, their two films did particularly well this morning with the Screen Actors Guild, but this is no surprise. The only question I have is just how far the industry may be able to take Imitation Game, which is the film I think has the best chance of offering Selma and Boyhood some Best Picture competition. The Weinsteins got Naomi Watts a nomination for her performance in St. Vincent and you better believe they’re going to be moving full steam ahead on Imitation, which I’d say is the most “Oscar-y” film in my top four for Best Picture at this time.
Looking at today’s SAG nominations and thinking of an email I recently received from Warner Bros. pushing Robert Duvall for his performance in The Judge, this is a performance that could very easily score a nomination in the Supporting category. Remember, Duvall was snubbed a nomination for his Get Low performance and no matter what the reviews say about the film, Duvall is good in The Judge and a nomination is very possible to the point I’ve moved him into my top five.
Now for that Naomi Watts nomination. I don’t get it. It’s not a good performance, it’s a “comedy relief” character in which Watts puts on a horrible Russian accent. And I say this as someone that really liked the movie, but if you’re going to nominate Watts for a supporting performance just do it for Birdman, but the Weinsteins clearly made a strong push for the nom and they got it. Don’t look for it to continue, but I had to, at the very least, add her to the race as crazy as it seems.
When it comes to the Supporting Actress category I haven’t changed much, Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) is still my frontrunner, as she’s been ever since I first posted my Best Supporting Actress predictions back in August. The only change is moving Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) into the top five and moving Laura Dern (Wild) just below the bubble line, a move I’ve been making with her all season long.
Before I send you off to browse all my updated predictions I’ll give you my predictions for Best Picture as I have them right now:
- Selma
- Boyhood
- The Imitation Game
- Birdman
- Unbroken
- The Theory of Everything
- A Most Violent Year
- Whiplash
- Gone Girl
It’s pretty much a tie for that #1 spot for me right now between Selma and Boyhood, both of them having good reason to be considered frontrunners, but Selma just seems like the pick right now, though I wouldn’t mind seeing either of them win the top prize.
You can check out all of my updated predictions right here and I’ll be getting to work on even more of those below the line categories in the coming weeks and these predictions might even change a bit tomorrow once the Golden Globe nominations are announced, so pounce on them while they are fresh.
