The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should be the only prediction we make, but I’m contractually obligated to give you four. But let’s take a deep look at the first big sequel of the summer season. Andrew Garfield! Emma Stone! Dane DeHaan! And not Shailene Woodley! This clearly will be a big film.
If we look at the 2012 The Amazing Spider-Man reboot, it only opened at $62 million, but opening in May is (slightly) better than July. And yes, I realize you could look to Harry Potter or Pirates of the Caribbean or The Dark Knight and say, “Well, July isn’t so bad, Mr. Laremy.” Fair point, but I come back with The Avengers and Iron Man 3! Being first to market in summer is a win, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will receive that benefit (if you don’t count the April release of Captain America 2… I don’t). I wonder if y’all will go over me? I’m already above most other prognostications (and tracking), but the potential is there. I’m thinking $109.5 million, daring you to go higher.
What of the other titles? Captain America: The Winter Soldier has had nice holdovers for a superhero film, anything sub-40 percent can be considered a win. Clearly it will be hurt, a little, by The Amazing Spider-Man 2. I don’t see a massive beating though, most people have seen it who wanted to, so they’ll still get normal foot traffic as well as people shut out of The Amazing Spider-Person 2. $8.6 million is the call.
The Other Woman, in its sophomore weekend, should fare pretty well as solid counter-programming. I only dip it 40 percent, down to $14.9 million, and then I move on with my life. For what it’s worth, I know both Brad and I found it perfectly palatable.
Lastly, let’s look at Heaven is for Real. Another counter-programming speciality, it has already made over 4x its production budget, so this is all gravy. I put it slightly over $10 million, interested to see your take.
How say you? Get in there, the Spider-Man 2 numbers are going to be all over the board, so there’s a huge opportunity to look like a genius.
Current Record: 13-51-1 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $102.4 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
