The Other Woman, realistically, needs $20 million to secure this victory. It’s officially a “lull” week, the last week before the end of A[ro; where the top twelve films should come in at a cumulative under $100 million. Last year for this timeframe the putrid (my opinion, don’t be mad) Pain and Gain took the crown by hitting $20.2 million, right before being washed away forever by Iron Man 3.
This year the battle is between two titles, The Other Woman and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and just like last weekend it could go either way. The reason I’m taking The Other Woman is demographic reach. The youngsters have had three weekends to see ol’ Cap, while my first-place projection should bring in women and date night. It’s not going to take much, so $16.5 million just might do the trick, though that is almost $3 million below tracking. I’m a risk taker.
Has Heaven is for Real gained broad support and crossed over to non-Church going audiences? Tough call, and the nearest comp I can find, in terms of opening, is Son of God. That one featured a great opening weekend before dropping nearly 60 percent, so I’m obliged to forecast at least a 53 percent dip, taking the film down to $10.6 million.
Our second new release of the weekend, Brick Mansions will also be our last new release prediction. They are marketing this one like crazy on sports channels, but it’s clearly not Fast and Furious, not a sequel and doesn’t look all that compelling. The 67 percent on RottenTomatoes actually undermines my point, so if you were looking for a surprise achiever this weekend Brick Mansions could be it, but I’ve got it coming in tepid at $7.2 million.
Finally, Transcendence is on the menu. With that C+ CinemaScore and critics hating it, it’s become clear Johnny Depp‘s latest won’t be making it in the marketplace, no matter how much I quibble with the judgments. Still, Oracle is all about logic over emotion, and so I’m forecasting a 55 percent murder, and even that might be kind. $4.8 million is my call.
Also, while it’s not an official prediction for this weekend, The Quiet Ones hits theaters on the heels of Oculus and is tracking for a $6.3 million weekend and I’m going just a shade under that at $6 million. Care to share your predictions on this one in the comments below? They didn’t screen it for critics here in Seattle, which might be a telling sign.
How say you? It’s not the most exciting weekend of the year, but with the spread being so low it might be a chance to pick up early multiple wins, as not much will separate first place from tenth. Get in there!
Current Record: 13-47-1 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The Other Woman: $19.4m
- Brick Mansions: $9.3m
- The Quiet Ones: $6.3m
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
