Fast & Furious 6 should win the three-day weekend with ease, though the four-day period is in some doubt. Thankfully, as my predictions don’t include Memorial Day, the picture isn’t as murky.
My cursory research indicates the largest box-office weekend ever came in December of 2009, Avatar-land, when the top twelve came within $100 thousand of $260 million. I’ve got this weekend at $259 million as well, but I’m coming in over tracking numbers.
My feeling is that Star Trek Into Darkness didn’t hit all the key demos in the way that Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III do. Throw in Epic for the family dollar, plus a holiday weekend, and you’ve got the recipe for pandemonium at the multiplexes this weekend.
My call for Fast & Furious 6 domination is also based on the overall quality of this version, plus the prior versions. Fast Five was largely liked, whereas The Hangover Part II has taken on a certain measure of derision since 2011. Plus, I liked Fast & Furious 6 more than The Hangover Part III. They are both fun, but I’d only see the Vin Diesel / Rock version again. Lastly, Fast is PG-13, The Hangover Part III is R. Game, set, match.
When it comes to the numbers, I have Fast 6 at $86.4 million and Hangover 3 a distant second with $62.1 million. Yes, I’m going well over tracking on both.
As for Epic, it looks as though it has been hung out to dry. It will get some dollars — I’m predicting $34.2 million — for being a family film, but it’s hard to predict anything nearing greatness for this title. We can only hope the production budget was small.
How say you? It could be the most interesting weekend we get all year, so don’t be shy!
Current Streak: Fifteen weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: 30 percent.
Reason: I see audiences rewarding the Fast franchise and slightly punishing the Hangover franchise. For the three-day weekend I feel confident.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Fast & Furious 6: $70 million
The Hangover Part III: $56 million
Epic: $33 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
