Box-Office Oracle: ‘Bourne Legacy’ Set to Takeover #1 from ‘The Dark Knight Rises’

Looks like another easy victory at the top for ol’ Uncle Oracle – The Bourne Legacy is tracking far above The Campaign, and The Dark Knight Rises doesn’t have nearly enough momentum. The only art this weekend will be in the totals, so let’s hunt those down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 8 Weeks In A Row

The Bourne Legacy

It’s over two hours, but theaters should still be able to slot five showings per theater. It’s also working with a PG-13 rating and an established franchise. Add in a 500 theater count advantage and you have certain victory.

As for the film itself? I liked it more than B-Luv (his review here), but it certainly has flaws. Those flaws won’t hurt it for opening weekend though. Plus, this sub-$50m opening would rank it third in the series (of four), so it’s not even as though we’re setting the bar particularly high.

Tracking is in the low $40s, so this is a bullish prediction given where the audience is at. But it’s bearish compared to the franchise history. How’s that for a nuanced view?

Prediction: $48.7 million

If you were feeling saucy you could note Ted‘s $54m opening and say “The R-Rated comedy is back!” I’d respectfully disagree, but you could throw it out there.
Prediction: $24 million
Finally faltering, $750m later. Are sequels now the the new third film (in terms of financial reach)?
Prediction: $17.1 million
Nice counter-programming, but there just isn’t much demand for adult (non-Academy) drama in August.
Prediction: $11.8 million
Quite the bust, they will need a huge international push to sniff profit.
Prediction: $11.7 million
Have we seen the last of the Wimpy Kid series? I know I have.
Prediction: $6.9 million
$732m worldwide!! I don’t know why this isn’t the cover story on The Economist.
Prediction: $4.9 million
$44m worldwide on a $33m budget. Not ideal.
Prediction: $3.3 million
Can’t tell you much about this film other than it’s pretty easy to sneak into the top ten these days. Even with 800 theaters.
Prediction: $3.2 million
10. Ted
We close the book on Ted, praying for a sequel.
Prediction: $2.9 million

How say you? Wanna take a different tact with The Bourne Legacy? Will The Campaign underwhelm? Predictions away!

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