Box-Office Oracle: ‘Thor’ Hopes To Continue the Summer ‘Fast Five’ Already Started

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Another easy call at the top, the only art to predicting this weekend involves how high Thor will go. Will people respond to it the way the critics have? I’m going to say “probably” followed directly by a “but watch out for …” just to cover my bases.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row
I started by looking at Wolverine‘s per theater average, but then I backed off once I saw the MTC tracking. It doesn’t look too solid for $80m, and this isn’t a film I entirely understand the momentum for. Were people clamoring for a Thor movie? Then again, it’s made $125m internationally already, and only $700k of that was in Norway, so perhaps they were.

STILL, it is a “superhero” movie, a classification that is now generic enough to support almost any big-bugget actioner involving superpowers. In this case Thor’s powers are actually God-like, and thus not all that super. You’d think a God could do cooler stuff than swing a hammer. But you’re guaranteed millions of people will flock to an “event” style of film.

Both Brad and I basically liked the film, though it’s not perfect, so a strong Friday night should translate into a happy box-office result. Plus, being first out of the gate really helps Thor, as the public is hungry. As such, I doubt it will be punished for being largely average. Note: you’ll want to stay after the credits for that last smidgeon of a scene.

Prediction: $68.25 million

The previous Fast film cratered 61 percent in its second weekend, but I’m slightly more bullish here, only dipping it 58 percent. I just think the franchise is in a place where the maximum amount of people are aware of the marketing.
Prediction: $36.38 million
It reminds me of a really terrible version of something already fairly bad, something akin to Ghosts of Girlfriends Past. But who is the demo for this? Women who don’t mind their best friends getting jiggy with their fiancee? I think it will do decently on Friday and then word will spread.
Prediction: $11.61 million
I’ve got it doing about ten percent per theater better than Just Wright, another May comparable, though this one is less “family” friendly with a PG-13 rating. But the trailers actually look kind of solid, no?
Prediction: $10.18 million
5. Rio
$371m on a budget of $90m means you’re likely to see Rio 2: The Reckoning.
Prediction: $8.54 million
The budget was only $38m, but it hasn’t done much internationally.
Prediction: $5.3 million
$42m and still earning, plus the budget had to be rather slim. If Perry could find a way to gain a foothold internationally he could become a billionaire.
Prediction: $3.65 million
The first one made $110m. This one likely won’t hit $25m. Luckily The Weinstein Company is still sitting on all that King’s Speech loot.
Prediction: $2.46 million
9. Prom
Only $8m in production costs, but they still have no chance of hitting a 3x multiplier theatrically. I call that justice.
Prediction: $2.4 million
$34m on $18m mean we can’t really make fun of it or call it a certain victory. It’s a tweener.
Prediction: $1.79 million

How say you? You like your Thor to soar? Wanna champion Something Borrowed or Jumping the Broom. Here’s your opportunity, predict and comment away!

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