Back in early May, I made box office predictions for the whole of the summer movie season, and there was plenty of debate. Most thought I was way too high on certain titles (they were mostly right) while some thought I was far too low on other titles (Hi Inception!). Still, now that the summer is over we owe it to ourselves to recap what went down. That’s right, enjoy a special bonus Oracle!
| Title | My Prediction | Actual | Difference | Percentage Difference |
| The Karate Kid | $185,000,000 | $176,591,618 | $8,408,382 | 4.8% |
| The Last Airbender | $125,000,000 | $131,601,062 | $6,601,062 | 5.0% |
| The Twilight Saga: Eclipse | $285,000,000 | $300,342,944 | $15,342,944 | 5.1% |
| Toy Story 3 | $387,000,000 | $411,182,925 | $24,182,925 | 5.9% |
| Shrek Forever After | $262,000,000 | $238,395,990 | $23,604,010 | 9.9% |
| Salt | $133,000,000 | $117,223,003 | $15,776,997 | 13.5% |
| Step Up 3D | $48,000,000 | $42,196,709 | $5,803,291 | 13.8% |
Thoughts: I’m not going to feel too bad about being less than 15 percent off on titles I hadn’t seen. I’m particularly happy I was able to call the strength of Karate Kid (which was up for debate with the first comment) and the fall of the Shrek franchise, though I didn’t see it falling as far as it did. Salt had commenter calls of $60m, $82m, and $165m on the board so I’m pleased I was able to accurately forecast it with so much noise out there. It should be noted that Bustray had a remarkable $420m call on Toy Story 3. That’s the prediction of the summer as far as I’m concerned.
| Title | My Prediction | Actual | Difference | Percentage Difference |
| Despicable Me | $185,000,000 | $245,651,920 | $60,651,920 | 24.7% |
| Get Him to the Greek | $78,000,000 | $60,974,475 | $17,025,525 | 27.9% |
| Knight and Day | $98,000,000 | $76,408,367 | $21,591,633 | 28.3% |
| The Other Guys | $84,000,000 | $117,257,709 | $33,257,709 | 28.4% |
| Inception | $188,000,000 | $287,501,168 | $99,501,168 | 34.6% |
| Grown Ups | $105,000,000 | $161,417,726 | $56,417,726 | 35.0% |
| The Sorcerer’s Apprentice | $85,000,000 | $62,793,592 | $22,206,408 | 35.4% |
Thoughts: It gets slightly uglier in this grouping. I’m happy to see Inception cash in, and many of you called that it would correctly. The Other Guys was another title that the group felt would perform — and it did. I’d say Despicable Me surprised most folks with its great run, and most of the Knight and Day calls were even higher than mine, including a doozy $160m prediction. And now, get your pitchforks ready, the category you’ve all been waiting for …
| Title | My Prediction | Actual | Difference | Percentage Difference |
| The Expendables | $57,000,000 | $102,285,058 | $45,285,058 | 44.3% |
| Iron Man 2 | $472,000,000 | $312,128,345 | $159,871,655 | 51.2% |
| Predators | $105,000,000 | $51,961,040 | $53,038,960 | 102.1% |
| Sex and the City 2 | $212,000,000 | $95,347,692 | $116,652,308 | 122.3% |
| Robin Hood | $235,000,000 | $105,269,730 | $129,730,270 | 123.2% |
| The A-Team | $175,000,000 | $77,222,099 | $97,777,901 | 126.6% |
| Scott Pilgrim vs. the World | $80,000,000 | $31,425,255 | $48,574,745 | 154.6% |
| Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time | $235,000,000 | $90,759,676 | $144,240,324 | 158.9% |
| MacGruber | $80,000,000 | $8,525,600 | $71,474,400 | 838.4% |
| Jonah Hex | $118,000,000 | $10,547,117 | $107,452,883 | 1018.8% |
Thoughts: To be over 1000 percent off on something is pretty remarkable, and I did just that. I ran, head first, into the “people don’t actually care about Megan Fox’s films” phenomenon. If I’d gotten the chance to screen Robin Hood I’d have had a much clearer idea of what we were looking at, but without prior knowledge I was suckered in by cast reputation. It’s safe to say Prince of Persia underperformed while Iron Man 2 made up for some of that domestic miss with international dollars. My Predators number ended up way high but there were calls much higher (and lower) than mine on the board.
And that’s the way it was. What surprised you about the summer box office? Did anything not deserve the beating or cash it made?
