Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jun. 11 – Jun. 13, 2010

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The tastefully named Chuck Bartowski was the predictor of the weekend with a delightful $52.4m call on Karate Kid. As for the rest of us? Well, the majority had The A-Team coming out on top. That’s what we get for underrating the family dollar! Let’s break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
If the production budget was $40m here, they are in great shape, this result must have them contemplating $400m in worldwide cume. Of course, it will be interesting to see what Toy Story 3 does to the holdover number.

The film itself was perfectly aimed at families. Could the longer runtime have actually helped it a la the “better value for our money” equation? That’s a strange theory, I know, but it could have lifted this one another five or ten percent I suppose.

Next topic, are we in for about 50 years of Jaden Smith films? He was really quite good in this. Will Smith has managed to be both a respected actor and a guy who takes on massive effects roles. That’s clearly available for Jaden too, at least in about ten years.

Result: $56 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 and my prediction of $37.55 million was $18.45m off for a percentage error of 32.95%.
A disappointing result. Many theories were offered, World Cup, The NBA Finals, or possibly remake fatigue. No silver bullet exists, but ImaRinger, Ian, and Dan Tralder were relatively close here with extremely bullish calls. With a budget listed over $100m The A-Team is scrambling around for air.
Result: $26 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $40.64 million, which is $14.64m off for a 56.31% error.
When exactly will the overseas dollars start pouring in?
Result: $15.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $13 million, which is $2.8m off for a 17.72% error.
The weekend rebounded from that soft opening in June, we’re now back up to late May totals. Get Him to the Greek still needs a lot of help to start thinking profit, respectable as the film itself may be.
Result: $10.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $10.55 million, which is $0.45m off for a 4.46% error.
Almost halfway back to earning a third of its budget, based on studio splits, marketing, and all that other stuff no one factors in.
Result: $8.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.6 million, which is $0.5m off for a 6.17% error.
The second largest drop of the weekend. Couldn’t happen to a nicer film.
Result: $6.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.98 million, which is $0.52m off for a 8% error.
This will lose money. But will it lose enough to get people fired?
Result: $6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.1 million, which is $0.1m off for a 1.67% error.
The biggest drop of the weekend, this one continues to slide.
Result: $5.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $4.73 million, which is $0.77m off for a 14% error.
The smart move was coming out first. There’s six hundred million reasons that was the right call.
Result: $4.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $3.36 million, which is $1.14m off for a 25.33% error.
10. Splice
At $13m on a $30m budget, it doesn’t matter too much that it has a fresh rating on RottenTomatoes.
Result: $2.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $4.06 million, which is $1.26m off for a 45% error.

So, a slight rebound, and certainly good news for the children’s films left on the board. But A-Team got decked and a few of the middle-of-the-pack films seemed destined to lose money. How say you? Shocked? Awed? And who has a U.S.A. – Slovenia call for us? Diversify!

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