What exactly is the state of the Oscar race at this point? We are only a few days away from the Thanksgiving break and screeners are finally starting to arrive in faster fashion. Just today I received a copy of Inherent Vice, American Sniper and Get On Up and will be seeing A Most Violent Year tomorrow, which leaves only a few films yet to be seen. Of those few, obviously Angelina Jolie‘s Unbroken is the biggest as it has only had a few showings so far, with the first major press screenings to take place on November 30 (though I’m not scheduled to see it here in Seattle until December 17, after the BFCA nomination deadline).
Interestingly enough, I feel there is already backlash building for Unbroken. Universal has pretty much put all their eggs in this one basket, offering a massive preview back in March at CinemaCon, nine months before the film was scheduled to hit theaters. Now, the few Oscar bloggers I read regularly seem ready to pat Jolie on the back, though unwilling to accept Unbroken might be a major player. I, however, won’t be doubting this one until I see it for myself.
I’ve been reading Laura Hillenbrand‘s book that inspired the film over the past few weeks and it is a stunner. Certainly Hillenbrand’s writing has something to do with it, but the story alone is magnificent and with the likes of the Coen brothers involved in writing the script — along with Oscar-nominated screenwriters Richard LaGravenese (The Fisher King) and William Nicholson (Gladiator) — I have little reason to believe they haven’t crafted something equally enthralling.
For these reasons Unbroken remains at the top of my Best Picture predictions, where it has sat since I offered up my first Best Picture predictions for the year back in March. I’ve also moved Jolie to the top of my Best Director predictions and the film remains my pick for Best Adapted Screenplay at the moment. I’ve yet to reveal my Best Cinematography predictions, but it stands to reason Roger Deakins will be a strong contender for his twelfth nomination and it will be interesting to see just how many nominations Alexandre Desplat lands this year as he not only scored Unbroken, but The Imitation Game, Godzilla and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Beyond what hasn’t been seen, what has been seen since I last wrote something up is Ava DuVernay‘s Selma, which many commenters seemed indifferent towards when I posted the trailer, but a strong screening at the AFI Film Festival seems to suggest DuVernay may be a strong Best Director contender not to mention it’s a film that many are thinking has a strong chance at Director and Actor for star David Oyelowo playing Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
Also premiering at the AFI Fest was The Gambler and American Sniper, the latter of which I have already seen. Not having seen The Gambler I can only reference early buzz, which seems to suggest it won’t be much of a player and, personally, I don’t see Sniper doing much either, if anything at all.
I haven’t searched out the response to Tim Burton‘s Big Eyes or Into the Woods just yet as I will be seeing both of them very soon and would rather I go in knowing as little outside opinion as possible.
Films currently in release vying for that top Best Director spot include The Theory of Everything and Birdman, both of which have been doing very well in limited release, expanding nicely one week to the next. This weekend sees a limited release of The Imitation Game, which comes with one of the best performances of the year courtesy of Benedict Cumberbatch, but I have a feeling no one will be besting Michael Keaton (Birdman) for the Best Actor Oscar this year.
Speaking of the acting categories, it now seems a foregone conclusion Julianne Moore is going to take Best Actress for Still Alice. I’m not even sure if Sony Classics even needs to screen the film. I haven’t had a chance to see it yet, but I have heard good things. What I can say, however, is I have also seen good things from the likes of Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Reese Witherspoon (Wild) and Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Any chance they can upset the Moore train?
Also throwing her hat in the ring with a big screening event this past weekend was Jennifer Aniston with Cake. As far as I see it, there’s at least a fifth slot left open in the category and Aniston may be able to swoop in and get her first nomination. The pitch? Aniston goes without makeup for the film. Is that enough for a nomination?
In the Supporting Actress category I have the feeling this is where Boyhood is going to pick up one of its wins for Patricia Arquette. Many think Richard Linklater‘s film is the frontrunner for Best Picture and of the movies that have been seen I’d actually agree, for now, but in the end I see it snagging Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay to start… I also think it already has a pretty good case for Best Editing considering the twelve year production schedule, but that’s also an award I’d personally love to offer up a “for your consideration” for with the likes of Whiplash or Locke, two electric films for entirely different reasons.
Getting back to Supporting Actress, there will be some strong competition for Arquette from the likes of Emma Stone who is wonderful in Birdman as well as Katherine Waterston for Inherent Vice, which I still have to see. The obvious “Can Meryl Streep win again?” headlines are beginning to pop up for her part in Into the Woods, to which I think I can safely say, “No”.
Finally, in the Best Supporting Actor race it’s pretty much J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) for the win. Edward Norton (Birdman) is a strong #2 and there is still talk of Miyavi for Unbroken and reading the book I can understand why he stands a chance… we’ll see.
I still have to open up predictions for the below-the-line categories, though I did begin predicting Best Visual Effects with Interstellar topping my first batch of predictions over Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
You can check out all my current predictions so far right here and once we get back from Thanksgiving weekend we’ll get deeper into all of this. I will have seen a few more movies and by December 7 I should have seen pretty much everything… hopefully Unbroken as well… You hear me Universal!??!?
