Iron Man 3 will almost certainly face a drop of more than 50 percent, but how low can we go? Is it facing Iron Man 2‘s nearly 60 percent plummet? Or is something like the original’s 48 percent dip?
As the first Iron Man was more appreciated than the sequel, I think it’s safe to surmise 60 percent isn’t happening, even though this is a massively front-loaded film. As such, I split the difference and went with a 54 percent drop and a second weekend prediction of $76.6 million.
The other Iron Man 3 news is that the film is likely already profitable by our 2.5 multiplier yardstick. At $740 million worldwide, and still going strong, the financial picture for Disney looks great even if we subtract $200 million for the budget, $150 million for marketing, and $210 million for the theater split. As we haven’t even started considering home video and toys, it’s safe to say the powers that be will be pushing hard for an Iron Man 4, even if they have to replace Robert Downey Jr. There’s simply too much money on the table for the Mouse House not to at least take a few meetings on the subject.
The only other truly intriguing weekend title is The Great Gatsby. Hilariously, BoxOfficeMojo.com has Django Unchained listed as a similar title, though once you get past Leonardo DiCaprio, the targeted demographic is as disparate as possible.
For some reason I think Mamma Mia is a more predictive film, it opened around $28 million back in 2008. The lowest possible number for The Great Gatsby is something like Romeo + Juliet‘s $16 million opening (adjusted for inflation). The highest number is in the upper $40s, mostly due to sheer marketing might. I enjoyed the film, but it’s certainly long, and it’s tough to think it will spark male ticket-buying interest, especially with Iron Man 3 and Pain & Gain still on the board.
My Gatsby prediction lands at $35 million against the $40 million tracking number. Care to dream higher?
The final wide release of the weekend is Tyler Perry Presents Peeples. This one should have some date night appeal, but it’s only getting 2,000 theaters, not enough to generate any serious momentum at the box office. Nevertheless, it’s also an extremely tricky title to predict, because Tyler Perry always hits a decent opening weekend, but this isn’t a “true” Tyler Perry film, it’s merely a Tyler Perry production. So there’s plenty of wiggle room in both directions and my calculations had me coming up with an $18 million prediction.
How say you? Throw out some predictions, see what sticks, and bathe yourself in box-office glory!
Current Streak: Thirteen weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zilch.
Reason: The Great Gatsby simply doesn’t have enough crossover appeal to challenge what should be an admittedly steep drop-off for Iron Man 3.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
The Great Gatsby: $40 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
