Box-Office Predictions: 'Brave' Takes on 'Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter'

There’s one clear winner this weekend, and that’s the princess movie from Pixar. The only real drama is … how high it will fly? That’s what we’re here to find out. Break down time? Break down time!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row

Brave

The tracking is around $60m, but I’ll go slightly under to account for lesser than normal word-of-mouth.

This would be the Pixar’s lowest opening since Ratatouille‘s $47m back in 2007. Three films have opened in the $60m range since, (Wall-E, Up, Cars 2) and one went huge with $110m (Toy Story 3). As such, given what has to be a hefty $150m production budget, they could be in a little trouble here domestically. That said, Pixar has a history of international dominance which should continue unabated here.

Plus, the schedule is wide open for Brave to dominate for three weekends until Ice Age: Continental Drift. Good planning, there.

The big question is: will people keep turning out for a Pixar film that feels a lot like it was made by someone other than Pixar? That’s a logical conundrum, I realize, but it’s where we’re at this weekend.

Prediction: $57.5 million

2. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

Previous Timur Bekmambetov directorial effort Wanted did really well, $341m on a budget of $75m. But this clearly has a lesser demographic, the not as coveted “Presidential Vampire Killer” crowd. Both were rated R, but that’s where the similarity ends. Let’s give it a generous $8k per theater and move on to …

Prediction: $26.5 million

3. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted

Life has been good so far, $285m worldwide on a $145m production budget, but they can’t be thrilled about going head-to-head with Brave this weekend.

Prediction: $17.9 million

4. Prometheus

This weekend the decline will slow a bit, all the way down to 54 percent. Based on those UK tax credits, this is destined to be a moderate financial winner, especially once those new Alien box sets roll out. But theatrically? The ship be sinking.

Prediction: $9.1 million

5. Rock of Ages

So is this Hairspray or Moulin Rouge!? Because the former managed less than a 1:1 multiplier overseas, while Ewan and co. brought home 2.5 times the box office internationally. My guess is somewhere in the middle, and that $75m production budget looms large.

Prediction: $8.1 million

6. Moonrise Kingdom

I am baffled by the roll-out strategy here. I’ve seen slow burns to reach market saturation, but this is getting ridiculous.

Prediction: $7.6 million

7. Men in Black III

Almost $400m overseas means this was a decent investment by Sony, even with all the drama involved in the production.

Prediction: $7.5 million

8. Snow White and the Huntsman

Probably needs another $200m or so to feel good about its financial prospects.

Prediction: $7.1 million

9. That’s My Boy

They spent $70m on this? Yowsers, that’s not too clever.

Prediction: $6.5 million

10. Marvel’s The Avengers

Anyone out there still need to see it? This is your chance to take in the film without a crowd bothering you.

Prediction: $5.4 million

How say you? I’ve got Seeking a Friend for the End of the World in a strong 11th place, but you can predict otherwise. And what’s your personal take on the box-office prospects of Brave and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter? Predictions away!

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Box-Office Oracle: ‘Brave’ Takes on ‘Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter’ and Abe Declares No Contest

Brave