Box-Office Predictions: Marky Mark and ‘Contraband’ Take on ‘Beauty and the Beast’ in 3D

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The streak went down in flames last weekend. Evidently a film that made everyone angry had enough momentum to take down the top spot. This weekend offers even more intrigue, three to four films have a legitimate shot at the crown. So let’s break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row

Contraband

Well, Avatar won a slew of weekends in January, and that was an action movie too, right? Of course Avatar and Contraband don’t have anything else in common, except for Giovanni Ribisi, so there’s not much for comparison’s sake there.

How about Taken? Liam Neeson’s film won a weekend in January ’09 with nearly $8k per theater. I plug in $8k per theater for Mark Wahlberg and company which equals Contraband winning the weekend. Easy peezy, lemon squeezy. Could it fall short of that number? Yes. As it’s not a good film, that’s an entirely predictable result. Admittedly, the low end for Contraband is around $6k per theater, and a silver medal finish.

Still, the reason I’m not predicting it is the potential weakness of…

Prediction: $22 million

Lion King 3-D pulled down almost $13k per theater, so why am I projecting Beauty and the Beast at $7,500 per? Good question, I’m glad I asked it. My working theory is that the 3-D double dip will face diminishing returns, and Lion King has aged better than Beauty and the Beast. Naturally, I reserve the right to be wrong.
Prediction: $18.75 million
It will face a very big dip this weekend, anywhere from 55 to 70 percent this weekend. I’m going with a 58 percent slide, if only because the second weekend of January was stronger last year (though it’s historically weaker).
Prediction: $14.88 million
The trailers are brutal. I see a Last Holiday type of opening here.
Prediction: $14.85 million
A 30 percent bleed. It leaps into second place for the MI franchise this weekend (domestic, no inflation).
Prediction: $13.9 million
The new ads say I need to see this twice and that it’s better than the original. Lies, all lies.
Prediction: $8.91 million
The original version made $94m internationally. Does this one lose that money because it’s been less than two years since overseas audiences paid to see it?
Prediction: $8.4 million
The production budget is now listed at a paltry $66m. Still, they could use an awards push which doesn’t seem to be developing.
Prediction: $5.81 million
Did you know this has made far more money theatrically than Almost Famous? It’s true, you could look it up.
Prediction: $5.73 million
$240m worldwide. We may be through with the Chipmunks but they are clearly not through with us.
Prediction: $5.25 million

How say you? Predictions on Contraband, Beauty and the Beast 3-D, and Joyful Noise will be gratefully accepted!

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