Box-Office Oracle: ‘Mission: Impossible’ On Top Again Over ‘Sherlock,’ ‘War Horse’ and ‘Dragon Tattoo’
By
Laremy Legel
This is a terrible weekend to predict box office. Problematic and conflicting trends abound, the box office feels sluggish, but the last weekend of the year generally holds strong, so the top twelve should at least sniff $132m, right? That was a long question with plenty of context, so you can tell where my head is at. Still, confused and all, let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row
Yes, I have it gaining 15 percent. I base this solely on me telling people it’s the only holiday film that’s any fun. Remember fun? Does anyone remember fun?
But again, 2010 saw great holds and gains in the Dec. 31 – Jan. 2 timeframe. Will New Year’s Eve falling on a Saturday night hurt the box office? Or will everyone’s first Sunday in 2012 be filled with box office returns? It’s a quandary.
Historically, this is the first wintery Mission: Impossible, which makes comparisons tough. It looks as though it should at least catch up to MI3 ($134m domestic), though once you adjust for inflation (ups it to $162m) the picture becomes cloudier. Is Tom Cruise back? Is the series back on track? These are the questions everyone wants answered, but there’s not a clear answer past “well, kind of.” But no one wants to hear that. Humans love certainty!
Sidenote: this one looks great in IMAX. Well worth the $14, and that’s coming from a guy who hates the 3D/IMAX surcharge. But don’t get duped into the fake IMAX. If the screen isn’t six stories tall, you get the hell out of there.
Another plus ten percent for the far lesser film in the Sherlock franchise. The first one made $524m worldwide. I can’t see this one coming anywhere close, because it currently stands at $152m. That’s a long way to go, and a short time to get there.
They clearly spent some dollars here, the film looks great. The story wasn’t for me, but I don’t think they’re too concerned about that. $18.7m on what has to be a triple digit production budget, so there’s still work to do.
Yep, our fourth “plus holdover” film in a row (War Horse had only one day last week but it still counts). That’s gotta be a record. Tattoo will gain only five percent, but I expect nice holds overall as this is the least frontloaded film of the pack. It’s all about the adult dollar here.
To put this in perspective, only one million people will see Tintin this weekend, or one out of every 300 Americans. That’s not many people! But $240m worldwide means we’re sequel bound even if no one shows up domestically.
Chipwrecked! I am dipping this 22 percent, mostly out of my fervent hate for the franchise. That’s not a good reason, I realize, but I’m just trying to be up front with you.
The fake Twitter feed this film inspired is by far the best thing happening here. The production budget is around $50m, most of which went to tiger food. Right now it’s made $18m, and I’m not at all hopeful it will translate internationally. Sad times.
About four films could take the bottom three slots. At this level of business most of the screenings will be seen only by the janitor, moseying by on a break.
Prediction: $2.36 million
How say you? I’ll take your calls on the top three films, and if there’s something about my predictions you find particularly egregious you can chime in there too. Predictions away!
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