I‘ve been going back and forth between Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) all awards season, but I have finally seen both performances and now think it’s Davis’ to lose. Streep’s performance is solid and she’s able to capture Margaret Thatcher with brilliant makeup and mimicry, but the role is a bit lackluster and the way the film has been cut into a non-linear mess isn’t going to help her chances, particularly against a film that has plenty of goodwill going for it and a performance people have been raving about since August. However, I can’t help but feel there may be a shift in the winds and perhaps a new contender could potentially creep up and spoil the party for both actresses.
One actress that has been shown a lot of support is Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) after she was named Best Actress by the Boston and Washington DC film critics and was nominated by both the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes. Williams gives a standout performance in Marilyn and I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see her make a move should she somehow manage to win at the SAGs or Critics Choice Awards where we saw the following six actresses nominated:
- Viola Davis (The Help)
- Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
- Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
- Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
- Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
The Critics Choice Awards have proven to be a solid predictor of the Oscars in recent history and of the names above that I have not yet mentioned Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) is the biggest mover and shaker after being named Best Actress by the National Board of Review and the San Francisco Film Critics, she was also nominated for a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild Award to go along with her Critics Choice nom. At this point, I’d say Swinton is in, which leaves us one spot left to fill at this moment.
Does spot #5 go to Charlize Theron (Young Adult)? Does it go to Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)? To answer those questions I’ll simply say, “Nope.”
For whatever reason, my brain is telling me Glenn Close is going to take that fifth slot, primarily for the actress she is and not necessarily for the performance she gives. I should add, however, her performance in Albert Nobbs is fine, but the character doesn’t do her many favors when it comes to substance.
To add to my decision to move Close back in the mix, I’m getting the impression Theron’s performance isn’t getting the attention it deserves at this moment and Olsen appears as if she’ll just have to be happy with a handful of Breakthrough Actor awards, but she’ll be back, that seems for certain.
When it comes to the overall winner, as much as I think it’s a race between Davis and Streep at the moment, the only major critical group to award Streep a win is the New York Film Critics and Davis hasn’t won anything for The Help outside of ensemble wins. The door is open for a potential upset, but do you think the Academy will be the group to take the risk? Personally I don’t, but should the SAGs, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards offer up some interesting winners we may have something more to talk about.
So, yes, there was a bit of a shakeup in this category as both Theron and Olsen bounce out of my top five and Close and Swinton swing in, not to mention a change at the top. Once again I’m reminded of just how much more fun this awards season has been and can you believe we have still over a month to go before the nominations are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
I have included my top five in the Best Actress category below and you can click here for the full field, which I really look at and see only eight solid contenders and considered just removing the other six from the list, but there’s no harm in keeping them there and giving their films some attention.
- Viola Davis (The Help)
- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
- Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
- Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
- Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
