Tracking for Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows was around $50 million for the weekend, but it looks like we may have another less-than-expected opening weekend as the film grossed an estimated $14.7 million on Friday and is likely to top out around $42 million for the weekend. This will make RopeofSilicon’s Box-Office Oracle a little upset seeing how Laremy was bullish with a $70 million prediction. Last weekend I was asked by one reader to be less negative when evaluating the box-office, but how can I not look at this with serious trepidation?
According to The Hollywood Reporter, Sherlock 2 received a solid A- CinemaScore from audiences that saw it this weekend. That’s a great score and one that usually suggests a film that will have some legs over the coming weekends. However, should the weekend end with the film bringing in $42 million that will be $20 million less than its predecessor made when it opened on Christmas Day two years ago.
Reviews for the sequel weren’t much worse than the original, which earned a 70% rating at RottenTomatoes while the sequel holds a 63%, so what gives? Are people slowly becoming less interested in going to the movies? Within two weeks the first Sherlock Holmes hit $138 million, that won’t be happening with the sequel.
Also opening this week was Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked, the third film in the animated family franchise and it’s also showing a downward trend. The first film in the Alvin franchise brought home $44 million back in 2007 and the sequel followed that up with a $48.8 million opening in 2009. After an estimated $6.8 million on Friday, Chip-Wrecked is going to have to begin praying for a maximum weekend haul of $25 million, which is $10 million less than the film was tracking.
The only new release making a splash in the top ten this week is Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, which opened in 425 70mm IMAX theaters across the country with an estimated $4.1 million on Friday, which includes $1.1 million from midnight screenings. The film is expected to hit around $12 million for the weekend, which would amount to $28,235 per theater.
Of course, most of that success is due to the six minute prologue for The Dark Knight Rises that Warner Bros. is playing in front of the release, once again showing off Christopher Nolan’s IMAX footage for the new film, which introduces Tom Hardy as Bane, the third installment’s new villain.
I’m sure Warner Bros. is wishing they had an IMAX release of their own they could have attached that footage to, just as they did with I Am Legend when they made a similar move with The Dark Knight back in 2007. After all, as one commenter on my Mission 4 review put it, “I had low expectations and honestly was there for the Batman preview with the thinking that if this movie started boring me I would leave.” He ended up staying and “really really enjoyed this movie.”
Elsewhere, Jason Reitman’s Young Adult, which expanded to 986 theaters this weekend and brought in an estimated $1.1 million and is expected to end the weekend around $3 million or so for a $3,042 per theater average, which I would assume is a little less than Paramount was hoping for.
Shame added 30 theaters this weekend and brought in $89,000 and will likely end the weekend with $270,000 or so from 51 theaters for a $5,294 per theater average. There’s still no word on Roman Polanski’s Carnage, but The Artist added one extra theater and is now up to a whopping 17 and made $73,400 on Friday and it has managed to do quite well on Saturdays and Sundays so may be able to creep up to $250,000 at the end of the three-day.
I have included Friday’s numbers below and will be back on Sunday morning with a complete weekend wrap-up.
- Sherlock Holmes: Game Of Shadow – $14.7 million
- Alvin And The Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $6.8 million
- Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol – $4.1 million
- New Year’s Eve – $2.5 million
- The Sitter – $1.4 million
- The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 – $1.3 million
- Young Adult – $1.1 million
- Hugo – $966,000
- The Descendants – $930,000
- The Muppets – $854,000
