First Official 2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture


The major end-of-year film festivals are underway as buzz from Venice and Telluride has been storming the circuit. I too will be in the thick of things soon enough as I’m packing my bags for my trip to the Toronto International Film Festival where I’ll be looking for great films to suggest and Oscar nominees to predict.

So, it’s with major excitement that I kick off a new year of Oscar predictions here on RopeofSilicon with a 100% newly revamped Oscar predictions layout that will allow me to update predictions faster and more often, and each and every time I do give a little note as to why it was done in a way that’s easy for you to follow every step of the way.

I spent the last week designing this new section in an effort to make it easier for you to get the predictions you want, when you want and the reasons as to why I made them right there at the click of your mouse, or your finger should you be using your iPad or iPhone or Android phone or whatever. I tested it on all of them and thought it looked great. So with that I won’t delay any longer, here are a few words on the Best Picture category and over the course of the next week I will begin offering up the first batch of predictions for Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director. So look for those each day and by the middle of next week we’ll be in full swing.

Back in mid-July I took a look at what I considered to be the top 17 contenders for the Best Picture slot at that time. Today, the same 17 films remain though they have shifted slightly. At the time I didn’t so much as rank the films as I put them in three categories: Top Contenders, Second Tier and Third Tier. Today, one of my previous top contenders dropped quite far while another slipped only a smidge. As for those third tier films, one is now among the seven films I am currently predicting to be nominated.

You can get the full details on all of the films I’ve ranked for Best Picture and more on my Best Picture Oscar Predictions page, but first here are a few details on the films I referenced above.

A Dangerous Method posterFirst off, of the two previous Top Contenders that slipped, David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method slipped the most. I thought this film would be the one to finally earn a Cronenberg film a Best Picture nomination, but after middling Venice reviews and comments such as these two tweets from In Contention’s Kris Tapley: “A Dangerous Method = really smart paint drying… Nothing cinematic about it in the slightest,” I had to re-evaluate for now. I will be seeing it late this week and at that time I’ll be able to gain my own perspective.

The other film is David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but that’s just logical at this moment. No one has seen the film yet and early buzz makes it sound like it could potentially be a bit too raw for Academy tastes so I can’t rank it among my current picks for Best Picture at this time. It is still near the bubble line, but for now it’s out.

The Help posterThe Third Tier film that jumped should be obvious as The Help won over the majority of critics and has now spent three straight weeks at the top of the weekend box-office, raking in over $123 million domestically. I don’t have it ranked high among the current nominees as I don’t see it standing much of a chance at winning, but it is certainly a film among the current top candidates.

Outside of those, I have added only one new film to the list, which is Sean Durkin’s Martha Marcy May Marlene, but the tonal similarities that can be drawn to last year’s Best Picture contender Winter’s Bone may actually work to its disadvantage. While that may be the case, as I say in my comments on the Best Picture prediction page, “Martha Marcy May Marlene is no worse a film for it.”

With that said, all that’s left is to move to the predictions. The following films are those I currently predict will be nominated for Best Picture in order of most likely to least likely. You’ll also notice I have ranked seven films as the new Best Picture rules mean we can have anywhere from 5-10 Best Picture nominees. Based on very little at this point I’m predicting seven nominees, but as far as that’s concerned this year is going to be a learning experience for us all.

You can check out my seven predicted titles below and you can click here to get more information on why I ranked each the way I did as well as check out my full field of 18 contenders with comments and information on each.

  1. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (dir. Stephen Daldry)
  2. J. Edgar (dir. Clint Eastwood)
  3. War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)
  4. The Descendants (dir. Alexander Payne)
  5. The Ides of March (dir. George Clooney)
  6. Midnight in Paris (dir. Woody Allen)
  7. The Help (dir. Tate Taylor)

This is just the beginning of the predictions as I will be back tomorrow with my predictions for Best Director. So stay tuned, the fun is just beginning.

To check out the new Oscar Predictions homepage click here. As I begin revealing more and more predictions the page will begin to fill up as we head toward Tuesday, January 24 when the Oscar nominations are announced.

As always, I love to hear your opinions on these predictions as any and all comments are valuable. So head below and let me know what you think and head here to get further details on these predictions.

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