Box-Office Wrap-Up: ‘Rio’ Repeats, ‘Madea’ in Second and ‘Hop’ Tops $100 Million
By
Brad Brevet
Would you look at that, a weekend in which the top ten at the 2011 box-office actually beat the same weekend in 2010 and 2009. Actually, it crushed 2010 with $117m compared to $83m. Let’s break it down.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
Laremy overshot Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family, but I’m not ready to say he was wrong on the placement. With only a $1 million difference between Madea and Rio there could be a shift although I think that’s unlikely. This is a bit of an under-performance for Perry, as Laremy’s prediction wasn’t an aggressive one as he followed the Madea trend and most everyone in the comments on his Oracle article felt the same way. Chris Etrata had the closest prediction, though, at $27 million, but even he thought it would come in #1.
Result: $25.7 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $34.32 million, which is $8.62m off for a 33.54% error.
Water for Elephants is the week’s over achiever as it was expected to come in around $15 million, but found a little more energy than that. Too bad the film isn’t any good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop by 50% next weekend despite that reported A- CinemaScore. However, I expect it will end up just fine as its budget is a reported $40 million and I’m sure it will fare just as well overseas.
Laremy was pretty close with his $18.3 million prediction but John Debono was closer as he almost nailed it on the head with a $17.7 million prediction.
Result: $17.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $18.31 million, which is $0.81m off for a 4.63% error.
Hop held steady after $4.6 million on Friday and is now the third film in 2011 to eclipse the $100 million mark, seems only appropriate it reached that mark on Easter weekend. The film was also the only feature in the top ten to post a percent increase from last weekend.
Result: $12.4 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.43 million, which is $5.97m off for a 48.15% error.
Scream 4 also held after its Friday number, though a 61% drop after opening weekend is not what Dimension had in its plans. Laremy was even generous with an $8.78 million prediction, and I bet he was probably wanting to go lower. With a $40 million budget and now a domestic cume of $31.2 million I’m still not ready to write off a Scream 5 entirely. If Dimension thinks they can make a fifth film for $30 million and still get the gang back together I don’t see why they wouldn’t do it.
Result: $7.1 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $8.78 million, which is $1.68m off for a 23.66% error.
I thought African Cats would be able to reach $9 million after $3.1m on Friday, but it looks like the majority of people interested in watching cute and cuddly African kitties showed up early.
Result: $6.4 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6 million, which is $0.4m off for a 6.25% error.
I am actually surprised Insidious has been able to hold on, I thought it might be a little too inside-horror-baseball for some folks with the massively over the top opening and its mining of PG-13 horror tropes, but audiences have obviously responded positively. I like to see it.
I’ll remind you once again it was made for a reported $1.5 million and has now topped $44 million domestically.
Result: $5.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.88 million, which is $0.42m off for a 7.92% error.
The conversation over the ending of Source Code is still going on over here as new viewers add their interpretations to the mix and new people are obviously finding the film. Good stuff.
Result: $5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $3.64 million, which is $1.36m off for a 27.2% error.
In other news, Morgan Spurlock’s POM Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold managed a meager $135,139 from 18 theaters and Sony Pictures Classics’s Oscar nominated Incendies took in an estimated $54,582 from three theaters in New York and Los Angeles for $18,194 and the weekend’s top per theater count. Also, Variance’s Legend of the Fist: The Return of Chen Zhen, which I will be reviewing in the next couple of days, opened in four theaters and took in an estimated $11,500.
If you were wondering about Atlas Shrugged: Part 1, it added 166 theaters and fell almost 48% taking in only $878,709
As for next weekend I’m pretty sure everyone will be taking Fast Five for the win. The film opened in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Korea this weekend and ended up with $24 million from 957 theaters. It was the largest opening for any film in the Fast and Furious franchise in all of those markets. Fast and Furious made $70.9 million in its opening weekend debut in 2009… You guessing Fast Five will go higher this year?
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