Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 3 – Sep. 5, 2010

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It’s another limbo weekend with the holiday looming, how low can this field go? It’s anyone’s ballgame at the top spot with three legitimate contenders for the crown. Note: projections are for the three-day weekend. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
I’m going rom-com at the top, ahead of grindhouse cinema and moody Clooney drama. Yes, this one is rated R, but it’s also one of two titles to have 3,000 theaters and it will only need $4500 per screen to hit this small number. Plus the reviews and word of mouth should be pretty solid.

The tracking disagrees with me, throwing Machete in the top slot. But I’m going against the conventional wisdom because my working theory is that this demo would be slightly missed by tracking due the same polling vagaries that skew election polling.

With all that said, I liked the film. Brad did too. So if those recommendations mean anything you might end up being the determining vote because about 10,000 tickets could decide this thing.

Prediction: $13.365 million

Riddle me this: why will this do significantly better than Piranha 3-D? The only thing going for it is the 2-D factor. Perhaps grindhouse fans don’t want to spend the surplus Piranha was charging?
Prediction: $13.25 million
A film that’s being marketed at odds with what it actually is. I didn’t. We’ll see this weekend if it catches on with the general public.
Prediction: $11.292 million
It’s a race for the biggest dip of the weekend between this and …
Prediction: $9.776 million
The drop should be somewhere from 52 to 54 percent for each of them. Which was more frontloaded?
Prediction: $9.435 million
Toy Story 3 is gaining 1,000 theaters this weekend. What’s going on there? Are they the bargain kind?
Prediction: $5.716 million
Should I see this again? I can be assured the theater will be mostly empty if I do.
Prediction: $3.209 million
Thank goodness for all those international dollars.
Prediction: $2.938 million
You can’t keep a good Nolan down!
Prediction: $2.81 million
I envision myself doing two out of three of these this weekend.
Prediction: $2.542 million

There’s pretty much no prediction that will be massively outlandish this weekend … unless you’re going $20m in the top spot. Other than that, arguments can be made for Clooney, Trejo, and Barrymoore. Which leaves us in your capable hands, gentle commenters!

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