Box-Office Wrap-Up: Aug. 27 – Aug. 29, 2010

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The top twelve couldn’t break $100m this weekend, we’re clearly in that gap between summer and Oscar contenders. Still, a few people made it out to the cinema, in their memory we’ll break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
You’re not going to do much better than Nick’s $21.2m call, both of us correctly saw it taking the weekend. Avatar continued the rerelease trend of not cracking the top ten — it remains too difficult to capture people’s attention with an older product. I had it 11th, and it looks like it will finish there with only one out of every 600 Americans buying a ticket. Alert commenter JM had a nice breakdown of Avatar‘s $5k per theater expectations in Thursday’s column if you were looking for supplemental reading material.

Vince (Not Vance) had the budget here at $1.5m, which seems crazy low even for a production budget. They spent a little marketing, sure, but this will be a nice win for Lionsgate, and we can certainly expect at least one more “LastExorcism.

Now, the rest of the money had to go somewhere and that somewhere was …

Result: $21.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $22.12 million was $0.82m off for a percentage error of 3.85%.
Wow. Only one commenter, the tastefully named Chuck Bartowski, even had this hitting $20m. But it did just that, proving the tracking was garbage on this particular film. This was clearly a spontaneous decision for most folk, ticket buyers bored and looking for something to do.
Result: $21 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $12.133 million, which is $8.867m off for a 42.22% error.
Reading Sly Stallone’s new Twitter feed, and realizing he doesn’t know the difference between you’re and your was … dispiriting.
Result: $9.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $9.768 million, which is $0.268m off for a 2.82% error.
I’m not going to beat myself up over $23,000. I was off around one purchased ticket per theater.
Result: $7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $7.023 million, which is $0.023m off for a 0.33% error.
Five for five and you know we’re alive! Bonus trivia question: anyone see Mesrine? I liked that one.
Result: $6.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $6.052 million, which is $0.548m off for a 8.3% error.
The budget is listed at $20m, which is boggling, because you just need lights and a camera to shoot these things.
Result: $5.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $5.832 million, which is $0.532m off for a 10.04% error.
Now would be the PERFECT time to rerelease Inception!
Result: $5.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.068 million, which is $0.032m off for a 0.63% error.
Nanny McPhee clearly only returned to spoil my top ten. Kind of a jerk move if you ask me.
Result: $4.7 million
My rank: Not Ranked
I may become a professional Switch predictor. Less than three percent off is nice.
Result: $4.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $4.736 million, which is $0.136m off for a 2.96% error.
Extremely frontloaded, the biggest dipper of the weekend. Congrats to the entire Piranha team!
Result: $4.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.504 million, which is $1.204m off for a 28% error.

How say you? Any more insights into this weekend? Were you one of the chosen ticket buyers? Comment now, while there’s still time!

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