Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 20 – Aug. 22, 2010

It’s a limbo style of weekend at the box office. How low can you go? Five “dumping grounds of August” movies have been foisted on the unsuspecting public this weekend, and only a few million people per film are going to be lured in. But someone has to win this thing. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
Perhaps I’m overcompensating to rectify last weekend’s inaccurate prediction, but there’s just so much garbage out there that a known quantity has a decent shot.

Last weekend quite a few commenters brought up studio tracking, which I don’t have access to, at least not on Thursday when this column is written. If any of you have a site you check for said tracking, I’m all eyes, and look forward to your counsel.

I do track other metrics of course. Theater counts are big, and I look at a few other secret insidery Twitter, RT, and IMDB angles too. Sometimes this works, say eight out of nine weekends. Occasionally it does not, and on films where the audience isn’t vocal online it becomes difficult to measure.

Anyway, yeah, The Expendables. It’s got a real shot at repeating against a highly fragmented field.

Prediction: $15.845 million

The first one opened at $14.5m. This one will do about the same, and it’s helped by the lack of children’s offerings. The main factor that hurts it is “back to school” is starting to loom.
Prediction: $14.662 million
I’m only dipping it 45 percent which is pretty generous if you ask me.
Prediction: $12.708 million
Having “3-D” in the title is starting to anger people so this won’t do anything near My Bloody Valentine numbers, back when audiences were still interested in wearing glasses.
Prediction: $12.35 million
I can’t figure out who the audience is. People who like Twilight won’t see it. People who hate Twilight haven’t seen Twilight to get the joke. So you’re preaching to a very small potential audience.
Prediction: $11.315 million
The second or third best “guy” title on the board, depending on your definition.
Prediction: $7.78 million
Another film lacking an audience. Extract all over again?
Prediction: $7.44 million
Needs more theaters. Less than 2,000 isn’t helpful.
Prediction: $7.35 million
The number one “heist” film of all time!
Prediction: $6.079 million
I’m sad it’s getting murdered too. But the numbers don’t lie.
Prediction: $5.839 million

How say you? You could make a case for six or seven films taking the top spot, leave your best reasoning in the comments for use to ponder.

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