Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 30 – Aug. 1, 2010

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The last film to take three weekend crowns in a row? Shrek Forever After. Additionally, the perfectly timed Alice in Wonderland put up a threepeat. And of course earlier in the year Avatar put together an insane seven weekend streak. That was a good time. But enough historical pontificating, let’s break this weekend right on down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks In A Row
You might recall that Avatar‘s streak came to an end at the hands of Dear John, but Inception is going to avoid that kind of ignominious fate with this weekend’s lightweight competition.

Inception has put up $160m in domestic box office after opening at $62m, so the multiplier is looking like at least a 4x opening weekend due to a very strong word of mouth factor.

As for overall profitability the international dollars still hold sway. If they match the domestic total overseas then we can rest easy in the knowledge of a rare thinking movie succeeding financially. However, only one of Nolan’s films (The Prestige) has ever managed an international take as large as the domestic, so the tea leaves are still fairly unclear.

Prediction: $29.96 million

I predict about a million desperate parents with two kids each … but I’m pleased we’re teaching kids the value of revenge so early.
Prediction: $24.08 million
3. Salt
The biggest drop of the weekend, but that’s still only 40 percent.
Prediction: $21.6 million
Theoretically, Cats and Dogs should hurt it. But being a better film has to help at some point, right?
Prediction: $18.91 million
It’s just not very good. By Sunday the word will have gotten out.
Prediction: $18.84 million
I don’t believe Zac Efron is a big enough box-office draw at this point in his young career. I’m not saying it can’t happen, just that he’s not there yet.
Prediction: $13.57 million
$71m worldwide on a $150m budget. No matter how you do the accounting, that’s not good.
Prediction: $6.5 million
The only interesting factor left here is the domestic vs. foreign race. It’s still too close to call, $383m vs. $351m.
Prediction: $5.53 million
They played small ball with the budget, spending $15m to produce it, but they still need a ton more box office to feel good. $12m isn’t enough.
Prediction: $4.69 million
None of us know where they spent the $80m, but they should at least break even. $160m worldwide, plus DVDs, plus a couple hundred plays on TBS and they are good to go.
Prediction: $4.68 million

How say you? Want to call a film not named Inception in the top spot? Am I too bearish or bullish on Dinner for Schmucks? Weigh in now, before we all wake up!

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