Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 25 – Jun. 27, 2010

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Right now Toy Story 3 is running wild all over the competition. It’ll crack $200m in worldwide cume today, and it should jump into 6th place all-time for Pixar on the domestic charts this weekend, passing Wall-E. Speaking of this weekend … let’s break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
It’s taken Pixar 15 years to build this battleship, and now they are fully cashing in on the market’s respect for their product. Yeah, the 18 percent premium on 3-D tickets helped, but so does the lack of bleed inherent in Pixar’s films. Here’s the 2nd weekend trend:

Toy Story (1995): 30.8 percent drop
A Bug’s Life (1998): 48.4 percent
Toy Story 2 (1999): 51.6 percent
Monsters, Inc. (2001): 27.2 percent
Finding Nemo (2003): 33.7 percent
The Incredibles (2004): 28.7 percent
Cars (2006): 43.9 percent
Ratatouille (2007): 38.3 percent
WALL-E (2008): 48.5 percent
Up (2009): 35.2 percent

Essentially, we’re in the second golden age of Pixar (2001 – 2004 was the first). Based on this chart, I’ve gone with a 35 percent dip for Toy Story 3, even with its massive opening.

Prediction: $71.7 million

But it’s not great news for everyone else. Audiences have been punishing all the average work being foisted upon them. Knight and Day opened below $4m on Wednesday, but I don’t put too much stock in that number. It will do $8,500 per theater based on the Cruise / Diaz factor.
Prediction: $26.33 million
Here’s the film that has no bottom. It’s getting savaged by critics, which wouldn’t matter if it were Transformers. It’s not. Only three million people are still into Kevin James hitting a tree at full speed.
Prediction: $24 million
A shining example of how to do business this summer. Keep the budget low, take some government subsidies (from China), and crush it with the families. Well played, Sony.
Prediction: $17.54 million
It’s on a pretty established trendline at this point, so I should be dialed in here.
Prediction: $8.1 million
I’m listening to this soundtrack now. It’s nice.
Prediction: $3.67 million
My bottom four films are within $.6m of each other and you know what that means … dartboard central!
Prediction: $3.05 million
Here’s the outline for how not to do business. A massively bloated production budget, no real script, and released into the teeth of demographic competition. The international dollars helped, but the U.S. sunk it.
Prediction: $2.57 million
Brad was right on with this one, it was simply a case of poor execution. Make a bad movie, get smacked at the box office. Feels like justice.
Prediction: $2.53 million
Unfortunately this will be off the board when the final verdict comes in, as international dollars will make or break this little DreamWorks title.
Prediction: $2.41 million

That’s my take at least, a top twelve near $167m, quite a drop from last weekend. How say you? I could see real movement out of the new releases, these opening weekend numbers are getting downright tricky. Comment away!

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