Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jun. 4 – Jun. 6, 2010

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The weekend dropped 16 percent from last weekend, leading to a very soft June number. The last time the top twelve did this poorly? That would be the last weekend in June of 2005, when a little film called Batman Begins was in its second weekend and Bewitched flopped. The last time the opening weekend in June did this poorly was all the way back in 2002, when The Sum of All Fears took the weekend.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
Quite a call by “imaRinger” — only $.1m off. Nice work!

Mfan engaged in a defense of Shrek Forever After‘s box office chances, but I must contest. Let’s look at the facts.

After three weekends Shrek Forever After stands at $183m in domestic box office. Here’s where the others were at after three weekends, along with their final worldwide cume:

Shrek: $148m / $484m
Shrek 2: $314m / $919m
Shrek 3: $255 / $798m

Now, which Shrek looks the most like this current version? If you said the first one, you definitely win a prize. We can expect the international trend to continue to slide downward, and the domestic total to top out around $250m. Thus, $700m worldwide is a real stretch at this point.

Result: $25.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $28.6 million was $3.3m off for a percentage error of 13.04%.
Huzzah! A comedy did decently this weekend. Ian’s $.4m off was the closest, though he had it in third place. The only problem for Get Him to the Greek right now is that somewhat bloated $40m budget. Feels like they could have made this one for $25m and made a bigger marketing push.
Result: $17.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $14.29 million, which is $3.11m off for a 17.87% error.
Of course, Killers was made for a hefty $75m, which is even less ideal. John-PT gets the cookie for only coming in at $.2m off. Kudos.
Result: $16.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $15.72 million, which is $0.38m off for a 2.36% error.
Remember when I said films tended not to fall dramatically after Memorial Day Weekend? That proved to be incorrect, with Prince of Persia dropping nearly 54 percent, joining four other movies in losing half their audience.
Result: $13.9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $18.65 million, which is $4.75m off for a 34.17% error.
The biggest drop of the weekend, a lovely 59 percent. They’d better hope those international dollars come through.
Result: $12.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $13.95 million, which is $1.35m off for a 10.71% error.
My reasoning was based on Garfield, but it seems as though people are over talking CGI animals. It only took a decade!
Result: $11.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $22.56 million, which is $11.26m off for a 99.65% error.
$6m more and it’s the number one Iron Man film of all time!
Result: $7.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $11.19 million, which is $3.49m off for a 45.32% error.
Crushed. And a $30m budget isn’t great news either as this title is liable to be fairly frontloaded.
Result: $7.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $11.23 million, which is $3.83m off for a 51.76% error.
When do you think they’ll start making that sequel? The first month of never?
Result: $5.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $4.93 million, which is $0.17m off for a 3.33% error.
I actually went back and changed my number to $2.92m on Thursday afternoon but the system didn’t accept it. That’s what I get for not getting it right on the first input.
Result: $3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $3.92 million, which is $0.92m off for a 30.67% error.

Any surprises, other than how weak the weekend was? Ready for that unrated Marmaduke DVD? Sad for Killers or happy for Get Him to the Greek? Chime in now, before it’s too late!

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