Box-Office Oracle: May 14 – May 16, 2010

It’s looking like another easy victory. Iron Man 2 is probably more frontloaded than I’m projecting, but I think early word of mouth is going to hit Robin Hood hard. Brad and I just saw it, live in sunny Cannes, and it wasn’t a happy fun time. It was the opposite of that actually. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 10 Weeks In A Row
It looks as though casual movie-goers are enjoying it more than the critical masses. Iron Man 2 sits at $341m worldwide, on a $200m production budget combined with what had to be a $100m marketing outlay. So it still needs to do some work.

The film stands $240m from surpassing the original, anyone have a take on how much it earns in worldwide cume at this point?

Going back to the critical slant on this film, I really think folks overrated the first one, and then had higher expectations this time around due to the Comic-Con footage. True, the first one had Comic-Con buzz too, but it was still the first in the series, and as such an unknown quantity. But no number from $50+ here would surprise me.

Prediction: $66.5 million

Kind of a debacle. It’s not really about Robin Hood, and it’s probably Ridley Scott’s worst film, though I haven’t seen A Good Year. Sad, because I appreciate everyone involved with the production. Just a rare miss, and a little over $10k per theater feels about right.
Prediction: $35.7 million
Decent counter-programming, but only 2,800 theaters to compete with. Also, I heard it’s not very good, so it probably won’t cross over with audiences.
Prediction: $15.4 million
They are clearly targeting theaters, hoping to pull some big city dollars in. With the NBA playoffs largely on hiatus, perhaps a few people will get their fix this way.
Prediction: $11.7 million
I still maintain it needs to make another $25m to feel good… and I have no idea where that money is going to magically appear from.
Prediction: $4.2 million
The seven weeks in a row in the top five streak probably ends this weekend. Still, hell of a run.
Prediction: $3.73 million
If Summit was a publicly traded company I imagine stockholders would be calling for a congressional investigation into this “product.” So no, it didn’t go well.
Prediction: $3.32 million
Did you notice the five films within a million dollars of each other? Dartboard city.
Prediction: $3.3 million
I enjoyed Tina Fey back onSNL. They should let her write that show in her free time, whenever she’s done with writing 30 Rock for the week.
Prediction: $3.27 million
10. Babies
Babies! Plenty of people asked me about the film, but nobody went. You’ll get ’em next time, Focus Features.
Prediction: $1.19 million

How say you? Want to shoot for a more sensible $55m call on Iron Man 2? Have advice for me on where to eat in Cannes? Think Letters to Juliet will shine? Weigh in now, before my jet lag gets any worse!

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