Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 16 – Apr. 18, 2010

First off, I get to restore my streak from last weekend as Clash of the Titans did pull off the upset on Sunday to pass Date Night at the wire. Boom! I’ll take any victory I can get. This weekend promises to be quite interesting too, so let’s get right into it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks In A Row
Most of the early calls had this one in the $30m range, but the history doesn’t suggest that. The third weekend of April is generally weak, so Kick-Ass will need to start a new trend to even finish this high. But I think the buzz is there, and this time it’s based on a solid product. This is a crowd-pleaser, so long as the crowd is into Kill Bill and absolute mayhem.

Oddly enough, this won’t win the per theater average this weekend. Which makes you wonder what might have been had Death at a Funeral been rolled out a little wider. But we’ll get to that in a moment.

The one cause for concern? That R-rating isn’t doing the film any favors, especially in the way they used it. The film is 75 percent tame, 20 percent violent, and five percent over the line. I think a PG-13 was within reach, but they stuck to their guns. Will it hurt them this weekend?

Prediction: $26.67 million

$9500 per theater, and the per theater average crown for Death at a Funeral. No small feat. It’s a fun little film, though I never saw the original, so it’s hard to say how this nearly shot-for-shot remake holds up.
Prediction: $23.36 million
Everything since the opening has gone beautifully for How to Train Your Dragon. No competition again this weekend so a 20 percent dip is probable.
Prediction: $18.86 million
It will beat Clash of the Titans this weekend. But what was up with Fox’s Sunday projection on this title? Sheesh, it was almost like they were calling for the win based on hope alone.
Prediction: $14.65 million
True, Clash was losing going into Sunday. But which film was going to hold up better? The Date Night effort on a non-Date Night? Or the known action quantity? I should have called foul on Sunday morning but I didn’t want to go all sore loser on you. I’m trying out sore winner instead.
Prediction: $13.14 million
I’m dipping it 40 percent this weekend. Call it instinct.
Prediction: $6.1 million
So far it has mirrored Meet the Browns. It will continue to do so.
Prediction: $4.14 million
Have you heard the economy is back? Good news, right? Still… too late to help Hot Tub Time Machine.
Prediction: $3.48 million
I hope to meet Tim Burton when Brad and I head over to Cannes. However, back in real life, I’ll be lucky to even get into the screenings.
Prediction: $3.08 million
I have this beating Bounty Hunter because I’m not into masochism.
Prediction: $2.79 million

How say you? Sticking with bold calls on Kick-Ass? Any chance Death at a Funeral beats the more hyped product? Think my weekend is too high or low? Here’s your chance — comments away!

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