I have been holding on to this story for a while now seeing how I knew my personal predictions wouldn’t be changing much in the weeks leading up to the big show on March 7. The topic is preferential voting and several outlets have taken a stab at explaining it, breaking it down and others are being quoted as saying it will be what ensures their film an Oscar night Best Picture victory. So, in an effort to make sure you know what the preferential voting system is and why it has Harvey Weinstein telling Pete Hammond, “We’re going to win best picture,” I decided no better time than now to break it all down and give you the complete word around the web.
The voting is simple, the 6,000 member Academy are each given a ballot with ten lines on it, numbered 1-10 and they are asked to rank the ten Best Picture nominees in order of preference, #1 obviously being their favorite. The votes are tabulated not by computer, but by hand sorting them in stacks based on all the #1 votes. From that point on films are eliminated from the tenth spot moving upward and reshuffled based on those ballots’ #2 vote, technically giving each Academy member only one vote. This process continues until one film has greater than 50% of the vote (3,001 votes).
I can understand how reading that may be a bit confusing, but if you keep that in consideration and visit USA Today‘s page you will understand the process in a matter of seconds rather than attempting to sort it out here.
To the left are screen captures taken from that animation providing a small look at the four steps featured, which results in the film that received the largest amount of number 2 votes taking home the Best Picture prize, which is one of the reasons you’ve heard me saying most recently how I don’t believe Avatar is the front-runner so many claim it to be and why I think Inglourious Basterds is slowly creeping up on the field.
Harvey is certainly convinced, adding to his quote to Pete Hammond saying, “Look, best director may be a question — and you can quote me on that — but we won the SAG award for best ensemble, actors are the biggest branch in the Academy and they love the movie.”
Just take into consideration the scenario, if Avatar or The Hurt Locker does end up number one on many Academy voters’ ballots, what film is likely to be number two or even number three? My guess is Basterds, and based on the voting process and the famous Weinstein influence, I would not at all be surprised should Tarantino’s film get the top spot. On top of that, just how great would it be to have the announcement “And the winner for Best Picture is… Inglourious Basterds!” shouted and ringing through Oscar history? I can hear the negative phone calls from the Midwest right now. The title alone makes the film worthy of a win for me.
If you want more on the preferential voting scenario, here are some additional pieces: Vanity Fair, Movieline, Notes on a Season, The Wrap and In Contention. And if you were wondering if this will be a one year trial for the 10 Best Picture nominees, guess again as Academy President Tom Sherak told The Wrap, “I don’t know if it’s a success yet, but so far, yes, we’re happy. I don’t think there’s any question about that. So far. And I expect we’ll do it for another year.”
All that said, I’m still sticking with The Hurt Locker as my Best Picture winner thanks to Kathryn Bigelow’s Directors Guild Win and the film’s win with the Producers Guild among other contributing factors. It is followed by Inglourious Basterds and Avatar, in that order.
As far as any actual changes in my predictions go, there were only two as I moved George Clooney (Up in the Air) into the number two slot and moved Colin Firth (A Single Man) to number three in the Best Actor race. However, both actors are still behind Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) who is now what I would call a mortal lock for the win. I had a similar move in the Best Director race as well, moving Tarantino into the number two slot and James Cameron down to number three with Bigelow still my favorite to win.
Here is my current breakdown for all the categories:
- Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (chart)
- Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (chart)
- Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (chart)
- Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (chart)
- Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (chart)
- Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious (chart)
- Best Animated Feature Film: Up
- Best Art Direction: Sherlock Holmes
- Best Cinematography: Inglourious Basterds (perhaps the hardest category for me)
- Best Costumes: The Young Victoria
- Best Documentary (feature): The Cove
- Best Film Editing: Avatar
- Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
- Best Makeup: Star Trek
- Best Music (Original Score): Up
- Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart
- Best Sound Editing: Avatar
- Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
- Best Visual Effects: Avatar
- Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Up In the Air
- Best Writing (Original Screenplay): Inglourious Basterds
One category I was tempted to give both nods to The Hurt Locker was in sound. I’ve heard a lot of grumbling over the score for The Hurt Locker getting a nomination, but you can’t deny it’s achievement in sound. However, I just can’t see Avatar missing out on a sound win — at least not twice. That said I give you a look at the sound of Avatar courtesy of the Soundworks Collection, which also has online a 47-minute sound panel featuring James Cameron and the sound team from the film.
I have little confidence in my Foreign Language pick, but not having seen three of the contenders I have little else to go on and as I mention above, the Cinematography category is a crap shoot for me as I believe all five are worthy in some ways although I still would prefer to see one of my many alternatives selected over Avatar, a film that many are currently predicting to win the category. Perhaps I’m just not knowledgable enough in the use of the virtual camera in a digital world as employed by Cameron and his DP Mauro Fiore, but it just frustrates me to see Avatar nominated when a beautifully shot film such as WALL•E missed out last year. There is a double standard here that just doesn’t sit well with me.
Additional Oscar contender news can be found in the RopeofSilicon “The Contenders” section.
Now it’s your turn. What do you think out there? Speak up in the comments below and if you need a nominee refresher here’s the link.
