Box-Office Oracle: Oct. 9 – Oct. 11, 2009

It really should win going away, nothing is being released wide against it. All you need to know about this weekend is that Fame still has the most theaters of any film. Ouch. Perhaps the theaters have started running infomercials instead.

Estimate: $24.0 million

I’m only dropping it 48 percent, but no number between 44 and 50 percent would surprise me. With a budget of $23.6 and the film poised to be above $43m gross this weekend profitability seems well within reach.

Estimate: $12.9 million

It should cross $100m this weekend. But it was so pricey to make that I’m still not sure we can call it a winner.

Estimate: $11.1 million

It did remarkably well last weekend. There’s no reason to think word of mouth won’t help it again, a decade later.

Estimate: $7.8 million

The bottom six titles are between $2m and $4m. So if you’ve got that dart board handy…

Estimate: $3.9 million

Did any of y’all see this last weekend? Did it feel like the studio watered down Ricky? I hope they did. Because he’s way better than this.

Estimate: $3.1 million

Drew Barrymore did a ton of press for this film. Which speaks to my rant of the last decade: media matters less and less with each passing year. What matters? Making something people will tell their friends about. Looks like Hollywood has a little homework assignment!

Estimate: $2.5 million

Anyone want to take a stab at the production budget here? $6m maybe? How much does that police incident tape cost?

Estimate: $2.5 million

Here’s what I want to see: PG films being released as unrated. Tell me you wouldn’t watch an unrated High School Musical! Okay, maybe that’s a bad example.

Estimate: $2.4 million

Remember when this had a bit of Oscar buzz? I do. Seems like a long time ago though, back when my Oracle glass wasn’t nearly so dusty.

How say you? I can’t see anything besides Couples Retreat up top, but the final number could use a little predicting / guesstimating.

Estimate: $2.0 million