Box-Office Wrap-Up: Aug. 14 – Aug. 16, 2009

The differences between G.I. Joe and District 9 couldn’t be more clear. One had a budget north of $200m (if you include marketing) while the other had the name brand power of Peter Jackson. The results have to make Hollywood wonder: should we just let good people do the work… outside our system?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Week In A Row
Madden didn’t hurt it. Alert commenter Sebastian had a very nice $37.3m call on this title, Nick was in at $38m. Will this title hold up? Well, you’ve got to think it will do a little better than…
Result: 37.0 million (My rank: #1, $6.5m off)
A 59 percent dip. It actually outperformed Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen percentage-wise in its second weekend – but without that Wednesday opening. And of course Transformers 2 had made nearly $300m domestically once the second weekend ended, G.I. Joe is just about to crack $100m. Based on these results we can infer that around 3x as many Americans dig Transformers. Not my rules, just the way it is. Nick had it at $22.6, another nice call, but Bustray had it dead on at $22.5m.
Result: 22.5 million (My rank: #2, $1.7m off)
I underrated it. It’s a lower budget too, a la District 9, so it’s positioned decently if it can avoid a big drop next weekend.
Result: 19.0 million (My rank: #3, $5m off)
What the hell was I thinking on Bandslam? You guys had it right, it didn’t crack the top ten.
Result: 12.4 million (My rank: #5, $1.7m off)
It’s the 33rd weekend of the year, and this weekend was right in the middle in terms of overall totals. The top 12 films grossed $125m, down five percent from last weekend.
Result: 6.9 million (My rank: #7, $1.7m off)
Smaller films like this always face hard choices. Do you try and get people into the limited theaters with marketing? Or do you attempt to get more theaters and skip marketing? It’s like Russian roulette.
Result: 5.3 million (My rank: #6, $2.2m off)
It’s now passed Chamber of Secrets and Azkaban domestically. Another $10m and it will have second place on that front.
Result: 5.1 million (My rank: #10, $1.1m off)
My only solace? No one else had it ranked either. It only fell 33 percent, not the math I was predicting.
Result: 4.5 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
Athar’s $3.8m call was the strongest. I overrated it, but it didn’t have nearly enough theaters or marketing to do damage.
Result: 3.5 million (My rank: #8, $1.1m off)
Hmmm, my numbers show 500 Days in this slot by a clean $2,000. I think the actuals will have Funny People in 11th when the dust clears.
Result: 3.0 million (My rank: Not Ranked)

So what happened to Bandslam? Is the G.I. Joe result actually decent? And is District 9 set up for financial success. Let me have it, and feel free to bust out any other questions or knowledge you might be sitting on.

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