Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 17 – Jul. 19, 2009

ON
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week in a Row
It’s going to need a really strong Thursday to reach $180m over the five day period. But this would represent a 20 percent gain (per theater) over Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. So that wouldn’t be shabby.
Estimate: $84.7 million
It dropped 33.8 percent last weekend, that will accelerate a bit as Harry Potter invades its demographic.
Estimate: $16.2 million
This is doing slightly better lately. That’s what happens when the dollar amounts get lower. The trick is not to start low. Hi Beth Cooper!
Estimate: $15.3 million
I’ve got this as the biggest dropper (percentage-wise) of the weekend. But there’s a ten percent range that wouldn’t surprise me. So it could grab third.
Estimate: $13.8 million
The Proposal has made $140m at the box office. I’ll let that sink in a bit. Remember guys, timing matters.
Estimate: $8.8 million
This is being spun as a loss, and financially it certainly looks like one. But I liked it. A little slow, sure, but not a bad film. I’m just not sure what people were expecting at the box office. Were I a studio head I just would have given Mann less money to play with. How many suits does Johnny Depp need?
Estimate: $8.0 million
It’s over $300m now. Will we look back at this summer as the day it became way more profitable to make and market comedies? Remember even though Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is at $727m worldwide they’ve spent at least $350m making and marketing it. Which means they don’t start cashing in until the $650-$700m mark due to distributor split. Sure, it will own on DVD, but Hangover could hit ten times its budget. Why not just make three of those a year?
Estimate: $7.5 million
Ideally this will serve as a cautionary tale for anyone thinking about doing this style of film again. We can only hope.
Estimate: $2.8 million
See above.
Estimate: $2.6 million
10. Up
You could win eleventh place this weekend if you came out with a halfway decent home video. Please take it under consideration.
Estimate: $2.3 million

So where am I off? Am I too high or low on Potter? Do you feel an impassioned plea entering your fingertips after one of my dismissive comments? Here’s your chance. Comment now and comment hard.