Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 27 – Mar. 29, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
The top ten at the box-office will fly past $100m again, after four weeks in a row of at or under that mark. Much of the money is going to come from Monsters vs. Aliens — a film getting over 4100 theaters. I’ve got it at $11,500 per theater, that’s Madagascar money if you’re scoring at home. It’s not Kung Fu Panda money though, I don’t think this one is on that level in terms of marketing.
Estimate: $47.2 million
It’s in a nice position. Quite a lot of marketing behind it, and Last House on the Left has already been out three weekends. The only annoying aspect is the “based on a true story.” It’s simply not needed.
Estimate: $15.3 million
This is the one title I’m clueless on. I’m knocking it 53% but I wouldn’t be surprised by any number. It might only drop 45%. It could hit 57%. It’s really a wild card.
Estimate: $11.6 million
John Cena doesn’t have much of a track record, but this isn’t a hard number to hit. The trailers for this are fairly terrible though.
Estimate: $10.5 million
No other comedies are coming out, so that’s helpful. But I’m going chalk city here, calling for a 50% drop from last weekend.
Estimate: $9.2 million
It will hold its own against Monsters vs. Aliens. Or rather it will get the parents who don’t want to sit in a full theater.
Estimate: $7.2 million
I haven’t seen a production budget released, so it’s impossible to read the tea leaves on profitability. Welcome to Hollywood folks, the last bastion of publicly traded companies without any financial transparency whatsoever.
Estimate: $7.0 million
I was asked why this failed financially. The questioner blamed the marketing. Yeah, it was some of that. They set it up as an intensely moody action film. And it definitely wasn’t that. But on the other hand it wasn’t accessible to the general public. The proof is in the result in this case. Not that it matters overall, if you liked it you probably don’t care too much how it did with everyone else.
Estimate: $2.8 million
They just sent me the original unrated version. Should I give that one a whirl?
Estimate: $2.4 million
10. Taken
The best part of this weekend? Slumdog Millionaire is OFF the board. I’m not hating on that film, I quite liked it, I’m just glad I don’t have to think up any more to say about it.
Estimate: $2.1 million

What you got next weekend? It’s gotta be Fast and Furious. It could make anywhere from $23m to $40m, and that should be enough to knock off the 3-D flick, right? I don’t think Adventureland will make much of a push, but I’m open to your thoughts on that front too.

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