Oscar ballots won’t be mailed to Academy members until December 26, they won’t need to be returned until January 12, 2008 and nominations won’t be announced until Tuesday January 22, 2008 but that isn’t stopping speculation on who is going to get the nod this early in 2007 and we are jumping in to give you an update on what the speculation looks like thus far.
Movie City News has always done a fantastic job of keeping track of the nomination environment and they have officially opened up their Guru’s of Gold section taking into account the opinions of 15 top Oscar prognosticators from such sources as Variety’s Anne Thompson, The Post’s Lou Lumenick and Sasha Stone from AwardsDaily.com. Now, I probably should dock them points for taking MAXIM writer and movie quote whore Pete Hammond’s opinion into account since I would never trust his opinion, but what can you do?
It should be mentioned right now that there are still movies that have not been screened such as Sweeney Todd, The Golden Compass, The Kite Runner, The Bucket List and Charlie Wilson’s War, but they are still guestimating the results on those. Luckily, in the next couple of weeks I get to see such films as The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Control and Before the Devil Knows Your Dead to update my personal award season IQ, but for now let’s see what the others have to say.
First let’s peek at the Best Actress category, here is who the Gurus feel are the top five contenders (complete list here):
- Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
- Julie Christie – Away From Her
- Keira Knightley – Atonement
- Ellen Page – Juno
- Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age (tie)
- Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart (tie)
Of course, out of these six ladies I have only seen A Mighty Heart, but I really think this is a category that is going to be tough to pick, that is if the award buzz around some films continues. Later this year Julia Roberts may make a triumphant comeback to the consideration fold with Charlie Wilson’s War, but she is not exactly a lead actress in this film. While that didn’t hurt Meryl Streep’s nomination for The Devil Wears Prada, Roberts isn’t exactly Streep and the competition is much stronger this year.
Word is that Cotillard is an absolute lock (I may need to try and see this film) and Christie is expected to also take home a nom. Atonement is getting a lot of buzz after performing well at the festivals but Knightley, like Roberts, has a role that is considered close to supporting and may lose out due to that fact.
Jolie is great in A Mighty Heart and I fully expect her to take home a nom just so they can show the clip of her screaming when her name is announced. I doubt Page will get a nom, but I see her getting one soon as she is destined to become an Academy favorite. Word on Blanchett and her performance in Elizabeth: The Golden Age is not looking good since the movie is being panned, but her performance as Bob Dylan in I’m Not There is getting very good buzz and the Weinstein’s are famous for knowing how to get the nom.
Laura Linney is talked about well for The Savages, but the word on the film is that it is quite dark and may lose out because of that. The Gurus also have Markéta Irglová for Once on their list and I would love to see it happen, but it won’t. Halle Berry is on there for Things We Lost in the Fire, which I see later this week and can determine then. There are two names at the bottom in Jodie Foster for The Brave One (no chance) and Charlize Theron for In The Valley of Elah, which I also don’t see happening.
If I was to make a guess at this moment for the top five I would go with:
- Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
- Julie Christie – Away From Her
- Laura Linney – The Savages
- Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
- Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Hopefully I can make a more educated guess in the coming months.
