Last weekend’s Sherlock Holmes prediction fell extremely flat. The general public took a look at the offerings and figured, “Egh, we’ll finish up our shopping and scoop up next weekend.” So here we are, next weekend, with at least six tough predictions to make. This is why we play the games. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
It’s going to rock this weekend’s box office like a hurricane. Last weekend it delivered $30k per theater from the 425 IMAX screens, which is clearly not sustainable, but I like a number around $13k per theater. For argument’s sake last Christmas only saw $132m for the top 12, and I’ve penciled in $171m for the same range. What gives?
Well, they’ve backloaded this weekend in a very big way. There is something for every demographic, adults, kids, action, action-comedy, the works. Last year new releases True Grit, Little Fockers, and Gulliver’s Travels didn’t offer nearly the same range.
Director Brad Bird evidently brought this one into the barn around $145m, and it’s already crossed $100m worldwide due to a strong early international push. It all adds up to a holiday win for our fine friends at Paramount.
Prediction: $46.67 million
Nice counter-programming, very nice. I originally thought the graphic nature of the film would scare off potential viewers, but the early “A” Cinemascore and the familiarity with the book series means Fincher and Co. are in a nice position. Not nice enough to win the weekend, but plenty nice.
Prediction: $29.14 million
Maybe it won’t drop? That’s what Warner Bros. must be hoping for at this point. I’m scheduling a 43 percent dip, because it faces heated competition from MI:4, but we’re clearly off the winning track here.
Prediction: $22.59 million
It will scoop up the family dollar, but the next four films are in play for that market. My gut instinct is they spent way too much money here, but the $240 the film has made internationally makes my gut instinct moot.
Prediction: $18.52 million
The exclamation point still slays me. Chipwrecked! It should face a 35 percent dip this weekend, and it sits at $43m on a $75m production budget. Not great news for Fox, especially since they miss the Christmas DVD window.
Prediction: $15.12 million
If I had children, I’d go this route. A completely harmless film. $4500 per theater feels about right.
Prediction: $13.5 million
7. War Horse
It doesn’t open until Sunday, it only has 2,300 theaters, and it is rated PG-13. So there is plenty of downward momentum here.
Prediction: $9.2 million
Haven’t seen it, but it doesn’t have much in the way of marketing or star power to hang its hat on. Could be a rough weekend for Summit.
Prediction: $4.4 million
Needs another $60m to $80m to lock in a profit theatrically. Doesn’t feel likely.
Prediction: $3.01 million
10. Young Adult
The tenth slot is a mess, with seven films within a million dollars of each other.
Prediction: $2.86 million
How say you? Predictions on MI:4, Tattoo, Tintin, Zoo, War Horse, and Darkest Hour will be considered, as will your bonus call on who will end up in tenth place. Have a Merry Christmas, and predictions away!
