Okay, we’re only a day away from the big night which means there’s been a whole lot of buzz and chatter with voters whispering about second guessing and prognosticators going haywire because of it. There’s scores of guys out there trying to give you the goods on who is going to win and who is going to lose; who are the good sleepers and surprise wins. They’ve been talking to people. They’ve been talking to directors and actors and producers and writers and homeless people. The only thing some of these clowns haven’t been listening to is common sense.
With the big show just over 24 hours away I wasn’t going to let Brad and his predictions have all the glory. This may be his site, but the Oscars are all mine baby. You may think we have all the same picks, well, we don’t. As a matter of fact I have the correct picks and he doesn’t. Seriously? Amy Ryan for Best Supporting Actress? That is soooooo three months ago.
So no, Juno isn’t going to upset. No, Michael Clayton isn’t going to surprise. Marion Cotillard doesn’t have the votes. Tom Wilkinson didn’t play Chigurh. I’m just going to give it to you straight here. Nothing too fancy because the Oscars have become way too predictable for us to begin to pretend that they’re all that interesting. So without further ado, here’s your Oscar winners and why.
BEST PICTURE: No Country for Old Men
Why: Because its a great film and it’s the Coen Brothers turn. People know now that they probably should have won for Fargo over ten years ago. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is the only other of the nominees that might be remembered as a masterpiece ten years from now but voters are taking comfort in the fact that Anderson is one of our greatest living directors and he will be back for his due in the foreseeable future.
BEST DIRECTOR: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Why: See above.
BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Why: The real reason? Because Marion Cotillard speaks French in her movie. Still, Christie’s is a great performance that is the most emotionally hard-hitting of the group. I predicted (and would have loved to have seen) Ellen Page snagging this one months ago but I don’t really think they ever completely got the word out how unlike her character Page is in real life.
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Why: He’s respected, in a great film and gave arguably one of best performances people have seen in years. See? No milkshake joke.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Why: Because this is one of the few late whispers that I think makes sense. Clayton is well-respected and voters are probably split between Amy Ryan or Cate Blanchett. Hello, third option.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Why: He’s won nearly every other major award, he’s in a great film and Chigurh is going to go down as one of cinema’s great characters. Every one of the nominees in this group are truly great … it’s a shame four of them are going to be big fat losers at the end of the night.
BEST DOCUMENTARY: No End in Sight
Why: With the exception of Sicko, the other docs here are too low-key to raise any flags, right? And I think as respected and timely as Michael Moore’s film is, voters feel he’s had his chance to shine already. No End in Sight hits home hard and is a shining example of what has become a genre on its own: the Iraq War documentary.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Salim Baba
Why: Ropa Vieja is a favorite Cuban dish of mine. Salim Baba is produced by a company called Ropa Vieja. Therefore …
FILM EDITING: Roderick Jaynes, No Country for Old Men
Why: He’s the hero of Country, the man they call Jaynes. People don’t know this but I once met Roderick Jaynes, years ago in college. He didn’t exist then either.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters
Why: Hey, I didn’t see a lick of these and this is the only one I’ve even heard of so … I’m your guy!
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP: La Vie en Rose
Why: It’s the only good movie nominated.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Happy Working Song”, Enchanted
Why: Because the Academy are suckers when it comes to songs like this. Frankly, this is one of the groups I have the most problems with because Eddie Veddar’s name isn’t among them.
BEST SCORE: Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Why: It’s at least one of the best two scores nominated of the group. Amazingly, this is the only award I see this movie picking up Sunday night. What an odd fall from grace this movie had.
COSTUME DESIGN: Sweeney Todd:
Why: Period pieces, especially more eccentric ones are always your best bet. Add in the musical factor and I don’t think the Academy can help themselves.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: There Will Be Blood
Why: All very worthy nominees and I keep going back and forth between There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men. I had No Country pegged early because I figured the awards would just snowball. But the Academy may feel the need to award P.T. Anderson’s film more than just an acting award. Oh no, I’ve become one of them…
BEST ART DIRECTION: Sweeney Todd
Why: Because The Golden Compass sucked.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Ratatouille
Why: The movie was so well-liked and admired it landed a Best Original Screenplay nod. Yeah, this one ain’t losing.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Madame Tutlie-Putli
Why: I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. When in doubt, pick the movie with the weirdest name.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Mozart des Pickpockets
Why: No good reason, really. I’ll be honest … I’m really banking on the fact that you don’t really care who wins this cat.
BEST SOUND EDITING: Transformers
Why: It’s the old idiom, sound editing usually goes to movies that crash, sound mixing goes with the movies with sass. I don’t know what the means, but I’m pretty sure Michael Bay owns this award.
BEST SOUND MIXING: Ratatouille
Kevin O’Connell (Transformers) hasn’t won an Oscar and he’s been nominated 20 (!!!) times. Never underestimate the Academy when it comes to their desire to step on the throats of hardworking guys like O’Connell. 21 baby!
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers
Why: Michael Bay may be evil, but he made those Transformers kick ass on the big screen. Give it up.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: No Country for Old Men
Why: I’m kind of scared of a Diving Bell upset but in the end, I think deep down people know the directing was the real star of that movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Juno
Why: Because Diablo Cody, for all her exposure, and the movie – with (gasp!) all of its profit, actually deserves to win. Because people love the movie. They like the dialogue, they like the characters and they liked the actors delivering on both. Mostly, though, the Academy lives to make Brad’s life hell. And so do I! Do it Academy! Do it!!
