2015 Tony Award Predictions, Will it be ‘Fun Home’ or ‘An American in Paris’?

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Here is something a bit different for Rope of Silicon. Sure, we have award predictions for the Academy Awards and the Golden Globes, but that makes sense, considering this is site is 95% about movies. But there are plenty of other stories out there being told in theaters that get plenty of respect. Except these are stories performed live right in front of your face. So, I took it upon myself to comb through the absurd amount of categories of the Tony Awards, which is this Sunday June 7, to give you my predictions on what will win.

I am doing this not just because it is fun to predict things and hope I get them all right, though that is certainly part of it, but I also want to shed light on these projects that a lot of people don’t know about. Film and television people often have on blinders when it comes to other forms of storytelling and entertainment, and by placing this article on this site, perhaps it will persuade one of you to head up to the Big Apple and go see a show. I know I am heading up there in July to see ten shows.

All that being said, let’s get into the awards…

Best Musical

fun-home-the-musical-broadway-poster-3My Pick: Fun Home

One of the top categories is also one of the most difficult to predict. This is truly a 50/50 decision between Fun Home and An American in Paris. There does seem to be a big groundswell of support, particularly in preliminary awards, for the adaptation of the 1951 Best Picture Oscar winner, but we have to remember Fun Home debuted Off-Broadway last season where it was well represented in nominations. The show is selling out every night, received rave reviews from just about everyone, and is a very different kind of musical than Broadway usually gets. An American in Paris did also get good word, but that was more on a production level than an overall one. So, there is a good chance I am wrong here, but I am going with Fun Home. My apologies to The Visit and Something Rotten!, but neither of you have much of a shot here whatsoever.

Best Play

curious-incident-of-the-dog-in-the-night-time-broaMy Pick: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Unlike its musical counterpart, Best Play is one of those slam dunk categories. The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, which came over from the UK’s National Theatre, has already won 7 Oliviers, 6 Drama Desks, 5 Outer Critics Circle Awards, and the Drama League Award for Best Play, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Disgraced may have won the Pulitzer in 2013, but no one really cares. Hand to God and Wolf Hall, Parts 1 & 2 have their fans, but they really have no shot. This one is Curious Incident all the way, and if that does not happen, it will be the biggest upset of the evening.

Best Revival of a Musical

king-and-i-posterMy Pick: The King and I

I do not think this is a complete slam dunk, but it is pretty close. Coming off of the 2008 revival of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s South Pacific which won 7 Tonys, this revival of The King and I brings back together its star (Kelli O’Hara), its director (Bartlett Sher), its composers (obviously), and most of the creative team. This revival was just as well received as South Pacific, took the Drama Desk Award for Best Revival, and that will continue to the Tonys. On the 20th Century has the possibility of spoiling, but I only give that a 15% chance at most. On the Town? Sorry, but there’s no chance.

Best Revival of a Play

skylightMy Pick: Skylight

The money here seems to be leaning on Stephen Daldry‘s revival of Skylight, starring Carey Mulligan and Bill Nighy. It’s been crushing the box office and been extremely well reviewed. Plus, its star power doesn’t hurt it. Another play with star power, though, that could sweep in and take it is The Elephant Man, starring Bradley Cooper, as it did manage to take the Drama Desk Award. I also would not be terribly shocked if the James Earl Jones-led revival of You Can’t Take it with You came in as a dark horse. All that being said, I am still going with the show that is still running in Skylight. As for the fourth nominee, This Is Our Youth (with Michael Cera), was well reviewed but never caught on with anyone.

Okay, now let’s get to some acting…