Guardians of the Galaxy leads a very sad field this weekend. Last year this same weekend was the worst, with only $66 million being earned by the top twelve movies. Really, if life were fair, we wouldn’t have to even predict this monstrosity. It’s the first weekend of the NFL, it’s TIFF weekend, there’s only one new (sort of) wide release. Guardians of the Galaxy should get it’s fourth win in six weekends, a throwback to the old days when films won weekends that weren’t consecutive. I looked around, and the last film I could find that took four crowns overall was the first Hunger Games. Impressive. My call is $11.5 million.
Next up, we’ll take a look at The November Man. Folks have told me it’s not very good, and I’ll take their word for it. Last weekend it opened under $8 million, so we’re already talking limbo low. I’m still dropping it 55 percent, because I’m dubious as to its holdover chances. $3.6 million. Again, the word is “sad”.
Anything left? How about that new release, The Identical? I haven’t seen marketing, and it’s coming at you from Freestyle Releasing, they have a proud track record of basically nothing. I put it in at $3,000 per theater, and even that seems generous. If you don’t want to do the multiplication, that’s a $5.9 million haul.
Last up, before we get out of here, let’s consider that big ol’ outlet for teen emotions, If I Stay. It dropped 40 percent last weekend, but theoretically it shouldn’t have given Labor Day generally leads to a stronger Sunday. Still, it’s the one demographic that might be a little immune to football: date night and teen gals. So I’m bringing it in a bullish $5.7 million! Boom! The happy news is they are already in the black, so look out for the sequel.
At this point, it’s time to wrap this up, mercifully, get your predictions in early and there’s some chance you’ll score, mostly because there’s only so high these dogs can go. My one NFL call? Bears over Bills by 7. Feels like a lock.
Current Record: 39-81-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The Identical: N/A
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
