Dawn of the Planet of the Apes looks like the slight favorite to take the repeat crown this weekend, becoming only the fifth film of 2014 to do so if it accomplishes the feat. The 2011 edition dropped 49 percent, and clearly I’m predicting this one will do better, even though it opened higher, indicating more frontload. What will save this from the 50 percent bleed? Competition. As in, it has zero similar films opening against it. Add in a little sequel bump love, already established in week one, plus fan reaction, critical reaction – well you get the idea.
This newest Apes is trending about three days ahead of its predecessor already, domestically, though the true verdict of this film will come from international dollars. But that’s not what we’re predicting today! My thought is $39.2 million, I see more downside than upside in that prediction if y’all would like to beat me into submission one more time.
Huge caveat, The Purge: Anarchy could be a contender. The tracking doesn’t suggest as much, but I have a feeling horror fans aren’t contributing to a bunch of market research polls. I have this title coming in at $4 million above tracking, and the budget should be limbo low. Much as with Paranormal Activity, they can keep cranking these out with low production costs, spending all the money on ads. Supposedly the movie isn’t so solid, but it won’t matter a bit for this weekend. $36 million, and a puncher’s chance at the title. Bet on it.
Sex Tape is a hard film to predict, because it’s another title where it would seem the enthusiasm would be kept under wraps. Both Segel and Diaz are highly likable stars, so this should bring in at least the date night demo. How am I still going above tracking in this miserable box office summer? Even I’m not sure, because overtly “sex” comedies don’t have a huge recent precedent of success. Maybe it’s too much pressure for date night, and not interesting enough for married folk. Either way, I say $32 million, and my guess is this is the most volatile title of the weekend.
Finally, a film I feel confident is a lemon, Planes: Fire and Rescue. Such a strange outlier for Disney, a low budget animation with limited oomph behind the marketing. The last one hit $219 million on a $50 million production budget, so they threw the same amount of cash at the project again. I get it, and the real market is probably residuals here. $21.6 million is my call, and I could actually see it going lower. It shouldn’t, it’s family, but the first one made just around zero impact on anyone, anywhere. On the planet.
That’s it for this weekend, how say you? Predictions encouraged! It’s never to late to beat Laremy at his own game.
Current Record: 29-67-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The Purge: Anarchy: $32 million
- Sex Tape: $25 million
- Planes: Fire and Rescue: $22 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
