Oscar Predictions Update: Picture, Director, Actor, Animated and More

It had been a while since I last offered a full-fledged Oscar prediction update and in the time between I have seen Flight, Wreck-It Ralph, Lincoln and Hitchcock. So yesterday I went through the current standings and the only topline category I didn’t change was Best Supporting Actress where the race is really going to come down to what kind of performance Anne Hathaway gives in Les Miserables. There is a chance Samantha Barks or even Amanda Seyfried may be able to make a case coming out of Les Mis and I’m not going to count Kerry Washington (Django Unchained) out entirely or Frances McDormand (Promised Land), though those all seem like longshots compared to what I’ve seen so far and the reactions to those performances.

That said, what I’ve put together below is a list of the standings as I see them right now with a few comments where I felt necessary.

You can always check out and keep track of my Oscar predictions right here and I have posted the link to the full field for each category directly below my list of predicted nominees where I offer a few additional comments on each category.

Best Picture

This is a tough category right now as so much is going to depend on Les Miserables. I’m not sure Argo has what it takes to maintain for the duration to remain entirely competitive and after seeing Lincoln, it plays exactly how you’d expect a Best Picture winner to play and it would be a mistake to think the Academy won’t eat it up.

I’m curious to see how Silver Linings Playbook will perform once it starts hitting limited theaters and expanding throughout the next couple of months as I recommended to two couple just last night that they need to see it and I’ll be seeing Life of Pi in just a couple of days and will be able to weigh in more on that one shortly.

I have also upped the number of nominees from eight to nine at the moment as I feel Flight is a legit contender, but the bottom four films on this list all seem a little wobbly, especially with the likes of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained waiting in the wings.

1. Les Miserables
2. Lincoln
3. Argo
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Life of Pi
6. The Master
7. Flight
8. Moonrise Kingdom
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Browse the complete field here.

Best Director

I had Affleck at #1, but after seeing Lincoln it just seems like Spielberg is now the one to beat in this category.

1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Ben Affleck (Argo)
3. Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
4. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Denzel Washington (Flight)
3. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
5. Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
2. Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
3. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
4. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
5. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Supporting Actor

I wanted to wait until I saw Lincoln to move Tommy Lee Jones to the top line, but again, this is just a film that Academy is going to eat up and the performances are a major part of that.

1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
4. Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
2. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
3. Amy Adams (The Master)
4. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
5. Sally Field (Lincoln)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb (Lincoln)
2. Chris Terrio (Argo)
3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
4. Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
5. William Nicholson (Les Miserables)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
2. Michael Haneke (Amour)
3. John Gatins (Flight)
4. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
5. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)

Browse the complete field here.

Best Animated Feature

This could be a really competitive category this year with 21 contenders and several that still have yet to receive their Oscar-qualifying runs. Wreck-It Ralph opened big this past weekend and Rise of the Guardians is getting a lot of early good buzz, but the unknowns beginning with Le Tableau could throw a wrench in the works. I’m just wondering if and when I’ll ever get to see one of them.

1. Rise of the Guardians
2. Wreck-It Ralph
3. Frankenweenie
4. Le Tableau
5. Brave

Browse the complete field here.