Box-Office Predictions: 'The Lucky One' Looks to End 'The Hunger Games' Winning Streak

Box-Office Oracle: ‘The Lucky One’ Looks to End ‘The Hunger Games’ Winning Streak

April 19, 2012

By Laremy Legel

It looks like another easy call at the top, The Hunger Games should finally be vanquished by the romance momentum of The Lucky One. Let’s break this thing down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 7 Weeks In A Row

The Lucky One

I’ve got it a bit above tracking, and I think the pent-up demand is there. Women are an underserved demographic, and I could see three million of them taking the plunge this weekend.

If you’re looking for comps, this should open below The Vow ($41m) but above Last Song, Letters to Juliet, and Water for Elephants. Do I feel sorry for the dates forced to take this in? Absolutely.

In 2011, the top twelve for this same weekend came it at $116 million. Comparatively, my predicted cume of $104 million for this year is definitely light. Could The Lucky One hit $30m due to an “ah, let’s see something” effect? Certainly, but I think the overall quality will start to hurt the results by Saturday evening.

Prediction: $23 million

2. The Hunger Games

Nothing to be ashamed of Hunger Games. You’ve put up half a billion worldwide, very impressive.

Prediction: $15.6 million

3. Think Like a Man

Not getting enough theaters. Which is a shame, because it could have easily taken second place.

Prediction: $14.4 million

4. Titanic

When does this head out of theaters? And when does the next 3-D rehash roll in?

Prediction: $8.9 million

5. The Three Stooges

The budget was an efficient $30m, so they’ll only need to come up with $72m worldwide to feel good about a very strange greenlight.

Prediction: $7.7 million

6. The Cabin in the Woods

$20m so far on a budget of $25 million.

Prediction: $6.4 million

7. Chimpanzee

This is the typical Oceans Earth Day Weekend kind of number. Not much room to go up or down here.

Prediction: $6.3 million

8. American Reunion

A 1:1 multiplier overseas, clearly nostalgia isn’t only an American obsession.

Prediction: $5.7 million

9. Mirror Mirror

$114m so far, but Tarsem had a lofty budget in place. It’s Stardust (solid fantasy, somewhat lacking results) all over again.

Prediction: $4.6 million

10. 21 Jump Street

Approaching a 4x result, you can hire a bevy of joke writers for the money this is pulling in.

Prediction: $4.3 million

How say you? Want to get bold and go Think Like a Man at the top? Feel like I’ve pegged Earth Day all wrong? Predict early and often!

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