Box Office Oracle: Seuss’ ‘The Lorax’ versus ‘John Carter’, Who Yah Got?
By
Laremy Legel
It’s an interesting weekend, with three new releases vying for the crown. But a holdover is going to win, with The Lorax perfectly positioned to scoop up the family dollar. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row
The production budget is listed at $70m, which means they are headed for gravy town. I hated the film, but I have to tip my cap to Universal for timing it perfectly. Is the next animation really The Pirates! Band of Misfits in late April? Could that be? How did they get so much time in the marketplace all by themselves?
Sidenote: how do we think this will fare internationally? Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who! did about even money overseas, but The Grinch and The Cat in the Hat were punished by comparison. Which means The Lorax is either going to perform 1) well or 2) extremely well.
When projecting the percentage bleed, it would be wise to be bullish. I’m dipping it 30 percent, but Rango fell 40 percent in a similar timeframe … and was far more esoteric than The Lorax. So it could outperform even this number.
$7,500 per theater here. The reasoning: it’s not an established franchise and they’ve clearly had a tough time marketing it. I want it to do better, I enjoyed it, but I’m not predicting it will bank.
I haven’t seen any trailers, but Brad thought it was at least interesting. Could it mimic The Woman in Black‘s opening? Nah, not without Daniel Radcliffe. Dream House‘s number looks more like it.
We keep banging this drum, but if distribution companies could come up with ten of these a year (instead of one huge miss) they’d be much healthier financially. $47m at the box office on a $12m budget works for everyone.
Wasn’t this filmed in 2008? Regardless, it has no hope of making money this weekend. Paramount is waiving the white flag with a paltry 1,500 theater count.
$161m worldwide on an $85m production budget. Looks solid, right? It’s a shame the theaters get at least 40 percent of that … and the production budget doesn’t account for advertising. Other than that, a win all the way around.
The Vow could snag this spot. Forewarned is forearmed!
Prediction: $3 million
How say you? Do you like John Carter to pull off the upset? Feeling like The Lorax is going to sink like a stone? Here’s your chance – predictions away on the new releases and the top spot!
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