UPDATED: Box-Office Mojo has provided updated Friday numbers. I have updated them at the bottom of the post, but left the original article as it was. However, these new numbers suggest a $100 million weekend for Transformers 3 is even more likely.
The chances for Transformers: Dark of the Moon hitting $100 million for the three-day weekend looked a little better when Deadline had it hitting $33.5 million on Friday, but when The Hollywood Reporter released more accurate estimates the total was lowered to $30 million. This doesn’t mean we certainly don’t have the first $100 million opener of 2011, but it isn’t a good sign.
The domestic cume for Transformers 3, which began screening late Tuesday night and officially opening wide on Wednesday, is now at $96 million. Of course, this still places it behind 2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which opened on a Wednesday back in 2009 and had a five-day cume of $200 million. The five-day for Transformers 3 (counting Tuesday numbers for Wednesday) is looking like $150-160 million and a possible $175-185 million for the six day, which includes the July 4 holiday.
The interesting thing is, CinemaScores are looking really good for Transformers 3, which could mean big word of mouth. Deadline reports exit polling showed that 62% of males gave it an ‘A-‘ and 38% of females an ‘A’, while 55% under age 25 gave it an ‘A’ and 45% over 25 an ‘A-‘. I suspect good word of mouth will keep it on top of the box-office next weekend as well, before the following weekend, where Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 will almost undoubtedly open to $100 million or more.
As far as other newcomers go, Universal’s Larry Crowne is sputtering along, opening to only $4 million on Friday and a likely weekend tally somewhere around $13 million. This is one film I can’t imagine people recommending, though it may become the talk of the town around the shuffleboard court and in the prune juice aisle at your local supermarket.
The Selena Gomez feature, Monte Carlo, opened to an estimated $3.1 million and will likely settle in around $10 million for the weekend. Sorry, I don’t have much more to say about that one.
Pixar’s Cars 2 took in $7.7 million and will likely finish the weekend around $25 million, which would be a massive 62% drop from last week’s opening $66.1 million. This will be the largest second weekend drop for a Pixar film yet. Prior to this WALL-E‘s 48.5% drop back in 2008 was the largest after it opened to $63 million and ultimately ended its domestic run at $223.8 million.
Last weekend’s other new opener, Bad Teacher, is looking at something closer to a 50% drop from last week as it took in $4.5 million on Friday and will likely finish the weekend around $15 million or so.
I have included the rest of the Friday estimates directly below and will be back on Sunday morning with a complete weekend box-office wrap-up.
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $32.9 million
- Cars 2 – $7.8 million
- Bad Teacher – $4.5 million
- Larry Crowne – $4 million
- Monte Carlo – $3.1 million
- Green Lantern – $2.2 million
- Super 8 – $2.2 million
- Mr Popper’s Penguins – $1.6 million
- Bridesmaids – $1 million
- Midnight in Paris – $890,000
