UPDATE (11:08 AM PST): Friday’s top ten estimates have all been updated.
Disney did a very good job of lowering and lowering and lowering expectations for Pixar’s Cars 2 this weekend so be prepared for a ton of articles this Sunday declaring how much the film “over-performed.” On Thursday night I read studio estimates as low as $48 million for the latest installment in the Cars franchise and oh, looky here… The film has opened to an estimated $25.7 million on Friday and is now looking to go anywhere from $70-75 million for the weekend and has scored an A- CinemaScore from audiences (via THR), which would imply good word of mouth and potential repeat business.
Of course, the happiest in this whole thing will be RopeofSilicon’s Oscar Oracle, Laremy Legel, whose 24 hours ago. Yup, they want to make sure the word “over-perform” or some variation is in every headline this Sunday. Well, I can’t blame ’em. Do what you can if the press is willing to eat up what you’re serving.
In second is Bad Teacher, which cost a reported $20 million to make and brought in an estimated $12.1 million. Audiences, however, are apparently not too impressed, giving the film a C+ CinemaScore. Finke seems to think this kind of Friday showing could result in $31 million for the weekend, but I can’t see it going any higher than $28 million so we’ll see.
Last weekend’s #1, Green Lantern pulled in an estimated $6 million on Friday, which will likely turn into $19 million for the weekend, which would be a 64% drop from last weekend. I don’t know, maybe word of mouth wasn’t too good?
Alternatively, Mr. Popper’s Penguins is having a great hold after last weekend’s $18.4 million with a $3.6 million Friday and an anticipated $13 million should that estimate hold once Friday actuals are reported. It makes me a little sad a film as bad as that one is doing well, but there isn’t much I can do about that. I gave my opinion, I guess not enough people read it.
The rest of the early Friday estimates are listed below. I will be back on Sunday morning with a complete box-office wrap-up, which is when I will also mention the continued success of Woody Allen’s latest film, which is now his highest grossing film domestically in over 25 years.
- Cars 2 – $25.7 million
- Bad Teacher – $12.1 million
- Green Lantern – $6 million
- Super 8 – $3.7 million
- Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $3.6 million
- X-Men: First Class – $2 million
- The Hangover Part II – $1.7 million
- Bridesmaids – $1.6 million
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $1.5 million
- Kung Fu Panda 2 – $1.3 million
