Box-Office Oracle: ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ at the Top, but It Won’t Hit $100 Million

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While we were in Cannes Brad asked me to throw out a number for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. I went with $106m, a number that now looks around 25 percent heavy. Whoops. That’s what I get for not factoring in the overall decline of the franchise. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row
There are two factors that could still push it toward a $100m opening. The first is the 3-D toll. Will you pay extra for it? There are at least two scenes it is used for, so enjoy! The second is the length, theaters should be able to get in at least an additional screening time per day given the 126 minute running time. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention there is an end credits scene. It’s no Fast Five end credits scene, but I feel like you should head in equipped if you’re taking the plunge.

With all that in mind, the smart money is still in the $80 – $90m range. The second version made $32k per screen, while At World’s End managed only $26k. So if we take another $6k per screen away, and then add in another thousand per screen to cover 3-D and extra times you get $84m. But as the max here is something around $120m and the minimum $72m, I’m definitely more bearish here. I should also note that it’s going to crush internationally.

Prediction: $84.42 million

2. Thor
$357m worldwide on a budget of $150m means this little gamble paid off, especially given the main goal had to be getting Avengers near $750m worldwide. Paramount is playing the long game.
Prediction: $22.56 million
The great untold story of last weekend was that Bridesmaids was the champion of the weekend … per theater. Shoulda put that bad boy in 3-D, eh?
Prediction: $18.62 million
$458m on $125m means that they’ll throw money at whomever they need to to ensure F6st and Fa7t. They are playing with house money.
Prediction: $12.27 million
Still, it had to have been better than The Tourist, right? They played Salt and The Tourist back to back on my flight back from France. I tried to walk out.
Prediction: $5.83 million
6. Rio
Another hit, $433m on a $90m production budget. Looks like Eisenberg can demand a voiceover raise.
Prediction: $5.44 million
The budget was just too high for this sort of project.
Prediction: $3.78 million
This, on the other hand, was made for a fiscally responsible $6.6m. Which means it is all profit from here on out.
Prediction: $3.5 million
It’s not going to hit $70m domestically, but it’s got a great shot at $100m worldwide.
Prediction: $2.43 million
A million bucks and you too can make the top ten!
Prediction: $1.06 million

How say you? Wanna go higher or lower on Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides? Have a different idea on Thor or Bridesmaids? Predictions away!

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