Box-Office Wrap-Up: Nov. 24 – Nov. 28, 2010

Before you begin reading, make sure to remember these are based on the five-day weekend… not the three-day. That said, it was a close race at the top for the three-day as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 battled it out with Disney’s Tangled, all of which I discuss below… Let’s get to it.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 4 Weeks In A Row
Potter may be doing big numbers, but this weekend’s biggest winner is Disney’s Tangled, which is only $1.2 million shy of winning the three-day weekend with $49.1 million. There is still a possibility it could actually take the three-day top spot should estimates work in its favor, but it will remain second to Potter’s five-day take.

On the other hand, there is more to celebrate as Tangled now holds the record for the largest Thanksgiving weekend opener ever, besting Enchanted‘s $49 million earned in 2007. It should be said, though, Toy Story 2 made $80.4 million in 1999, but that was technically its second weekend after opening in one theater the weekend prior.

As for the predictions, Laremy was pretty far off, while therapycase1279 had the closest prediction on the board with $60 million. Kudos to you.

Result: $69 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $45.03 million, which is $23.97m off for a 34.74% error.
Two of the top three films this weekend were animated features, which means the family and the kids were taken care of and Laremy was spot on with this pick in terms of dollars, but he overestimated a couple of the newcomers.

Megamind is now up to $130 million total, which matches its budget, which means Paramount and Dreamworks are quite happy. That 19.8% dip from last weekend looks awfully nice too.

Result: $17.6 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $17.18 million, which is $0.42m off for a 2.39% error.
Burlesque was the best of the rest as a quartet of new features went wide over the five-day weekend, but when $17.2 million is the runner-up to Tangled‘s $69 million it isn’t saying much. Of course, the three other new releases this weekend didn’t enjoy very good reviews, which doesn’t really help if you’re looking to gather the family around the big screen.

Laremy’s $21 million prediction was a bit above the mark, but Kid was damn near right on the money with a $17 million pick on the board.

Result: $17.2 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $21 million, which is $3.8m off for a 22.09% error.
It seems instead of seeing Faster, Unstoppable managed to get the male demographic, but I would bet this had more to do with the fact if you’re going to see a date night movie it may be easier to convince your date to see a film about a runaway train rather than an ex-pro wrestler who goes around shooting people in the head.

By the way, this was only a 9.7% dip from last weekend.

Result: $16.2 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $11.97 million, which is $4.23m off for a 26.11% error.
Coming in third on the list for the weekend’s newcomers is Fox’s Love and Other Drugs and a five-day tally of $14 million, which I must say I am impressed by Laremy’s $16.1 million guess. He went the wrong way with Faster, but had this one pretty much dialed in. I saw a lot of advertising for this flick leading up to the film’s release, but it seems people either weren’t interested or the reviews turned them off. This film actually has a slightly lower RottenTomatoes rating than Faster, which is really saying something.

When it comes to user predictions, it’s hard to beat Chris Carmichael’s $13.6 million pick. Nice work.

Result: $14 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $16.1 million, which is $2.1m off for a 15% error.
Finally, the week’s other new wide release is CBS Films’ first feature since The Back-Up Plan and the five-day return wasn’t pretty. Made for a reported $24 million, Faster managed a meager $12.2 million over the holiday weekend.

Laremy looked at this one as a bit of counter-programming, which wasn’t such a bad idea, but it seems the fellas stayed home to watch football rather than head to the theater to check out The Rock in action. Once again, Kid was the closest when it comes to user predictions with a $13 million pick on the board.

Result: $12.2 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $18.74 million, which is $6.54m off for a 53.61% error.
From last weekend, Due Date dipped only 18%, Warner Bros. is loving that as this film’s domestic total is now over $85 million. Now I bet they just wish it didn’t cost $65 million to make.
Result: $10.4 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $8.64 million, which is $1.76m off for a 16.92% error.
Holding on rather well is Paul Haggis’s The Next Three Days although the $6.5 million opening means this one didn’t have too far to drop.
Result: $6.6 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $6.77 million, which is $0.17m off for a 2.58% error.
I saw caught a little of The Family Stone this weekend, a film that featured Rachel McAdams wearing her PJs for most of the duration. That was a film that was also overlooked, but after seeing it was on television most of the last two weeks it appears someone likes it. Perhaps the same will happen to this film.
Result: $5.4 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $6.5 million, which is $1.1m off for a 20.37% error.

While Tangled may be a big story, The King’s Speech made a massive impact in only four theaters this weekend. Opening on Friday, the film earned a whopping $350,000 for a $87,000 per theater average. It’s Oscar chances seemed to be dwindling after bursting strong out of the gates during the festival circuit and this return is a nice bump to throw it back in the limelight.

Additionally, 127 Hours expanded from 108 to 293 theaters and brought in $2.3 million over the five-day weekend while Summit’s Fair Game continues to hang tough despite the fact it seems the studio forgot to advertise it. Doug Liman’s story of Valerie Plame played in 396 theaters and earned $1.9 million over the five-day.

Next weekend we’ll be talking about all the same films over again as no major new wide releases hit theaters, though Black Swan will finally hit limited release as will I Love You Phillip Morris. Feel free to discuss this weekend and just how well do you see these films carrying over? How big will Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 go? How big will Tangled go? Does Tangled‘s impressive box-office change the conversation for Oscar’s Best Animated Feature race?

Discuss!

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