UPDATE: I have updated the article with the actual Friday estimates as well as added a complete Friday top ten at the bottom. Other than that, the rest of the article remains the same as most of the estimates were quite similar to the early ones. However, I don’t see Paranormal Activity 2 hitting the previously estimated $18.5 million weekend now, perhaps something closer to $17 million.
I am heading to an early screening of Tangled on Saturday morning so instead of being able to wait for actual Friday estimates I have to settle for Nikki Finke’s very early estimates. Finke’s sources are traditionally pretty good so this should be enough to start some discussion and, I’ll post a small update when I get back from the screening later in the day.
Obviously this weekend the big question was whether or not Lionsgate’s Saw 3D would once again lose to the Paranormal Activity juggernaut as the bad blood between the two started early with a nasty director tug-of-war. Last year Saw VI opened to a measly $14 million making for the weakest opening for a Saw film outside of the original and lost to Paranormal Activity, which was then in its fifth weekend and in 1,091 fewer theaters.
Saw VI went on to gross a paltry $27 million in domestic receipts, making for the worst total in the franchise’s history. Should estimates hold, that $27 million will be bested in the first three days of Saw 3D‘s run.
Finke lists Saw 3D as earning an estimated $10.7 million on Friday, which includes $1.7 million from midnight showings. She estimates this will result in $28 million for the weekend, which would certainly be enough for the top spot.
In second is Paramount’s Paranormal Activity 2 with an estimated $5.8 million on Friday. Finke estimates this will result in an $18.5 million weekend, which means we’re talking about a 54.5% drop from the film’s massive $40.6 million opening. I would like to say she may be aiming a little high with that prediction, but she’s probably right considering what will probably be a larger than normal weekend for horror films thanks to Halloween.
Paranormal Activity 2 was made on a reported budget of only $3 million, so it’s hardly like the large week-to-week drop is an issue for Paramount considering the film has already grossed $49 million in its first seven days. But boy does this show how front-loaded horror films have become and doesn’t bode well for Saw 3D‘s chances next week when Due Date, Megamind and For Colored Girls hit wide release.
Finke currently only lists estimates for the top five so I’ve included those below and will, at the very least, update the numbers in this article as well as list the top ten once I get back to the office on Saturday afternoon. I’ll be sure to add “Updated” to the headline when I do. For now, here’s what we have to work with.
- Saw 3D – $10.7 million
- Paranormal Activity 2 – $5.8 million
- Red – $3.4 million
- Jackass 3D – $3.1 million
- Hereafter – $2 million
- Secretariat – $1.58 million
- The Social Network – $1.55 million
- Life as We Know It – $1.4 million
- The Twon – $620,000
- Conviction – $550,000
