Box-Office Wrap-Up: Sep. 24 – Sep. 26, 2010

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Well, the first little change you’ll see with the Box-Office reporting is that I will be taking over wrap-up duties from Laremy who will now be sticking strictly to Oracle while I report on Friday and weekend results. There are a few more changes to come in the near future, and I would expect Laremy will do the Wrap-Up on occasion, but for now expect weekend results to come from me from here on out… That said, let’s get to the numbers…
Laremy picked the #1 movie correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
In my Friday estimates column I said it looked like Wall Street would “be pushing hard for a $23 million” but I wouldn’t be surprised “to see it end just above $20m.” Well, it couldn’t even managed that as the film’s $8 million Friday turned into a meager $19 million weekend. Ouch.

Interestingly enough, Laremy was damn near spot on with his prediction. Only problem he had this week was his drastic over-estimation of Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole. As for predictions from the commenters, John Debono was closest with a $17.4 million, though Andrew did say he was “thinking around 20 million or so.” Be sure to give precise numbers folks for better recognition. Debono’s prediction was the only one below $20 million.

Result: $19 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and my prediction of $19.114 million was $0.114m off for a percentage error of 0.6%.
Laremy put too much faith in the kids and families as his $31.1 million prediction for Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole was cut in half. I don’t think this can be considered much of a surprise, especially this is the kind of result tracking predicted, and I’m still baffled at why Warner Bros. thought spending $100+ million on this film was a good idea. The story just doesn’t seem like something little kids are going to be interested in seeing.

A lot of user predictions pegged the film for a big result as well so it wasn’t only Laremy thinking families would be out to support the newest kid film following last week’s lackluster return for Alpha and Omega.

Result: $16.3 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $31.159 million, which is $14.859m off for a 91.16% error.
Only a 32.8% dip for Ben Affleck’s The Town is solid business as it went from a $23.8 million opening weekend to a $16 million second weekend. Bustray pegged it for $15.9 million, but most of the commenters were really close on this one. I wondered last week just how good word of mouth would be and apparently it was quite strong. Even though I wasn’t head over heels for this movie, it is nice to see audiences supporting something that’s at least representative of good filmmaking.
Result: $16 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $14.405 million, which is $1.595m off for a 9.97% error.
Not quite as good as The Town‘s performance, but Easy A‘s 39.5% dip is respectable and shows Emma Stone may have the star power we’ve been looking for. She’s a unique young actress that doesn’t have the same looks as the rest and it appears to me she may have both the talent for the dramatic and the comedic. Are we looking at the new Sandra Bullock here?
Result: $10.7 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $10.107 million, which is $0.593m off for a 5.54% error.
I didn’t hear anything good about You Again and apparently neither did anyone else as this one went from a $2.75 million Friday to an $8.3 million weekend. That’s some bad word-of-mouth folks. Laremy dramatically over-estimated this one as well, but John Debono and Bustray come through, both with a scary close $8.2 million pick.

It seems the Betty White craze is finally coming to a close. Thank god.

Result: $8.3 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $14.085 million, which is $5.785m off for a 69.7% error.
It amuses me slightly to hear people say good things about this film almost apologetically or with a certain level of surprise as if something from M. Night Shyamalan could or would never be good again. Shyamalan has some good stories in him, the last few just haven’t been his best. He obviously came up with something decent here and director John Erick Dowdle and writer Brian Nelson were able to turn it into something audiences wanted to watch.

Devil‘s now made $21.7 million on a reported $10 million budget. Not too shabby eh?

Result: $6.4 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.263 million, which is $1.137m off for a 17.77% error.
Resident Evil: Afterlife is now at $52 million domestically plus another $100+ million overseas. Sony/Screen Gems did hold on to a lot of those foreign territories so Resident Evil 5 seems a lot more likely now after last week I completely overlooked foreign markets.
Result: $4.9 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.301 million, which is $0.401m off for a 8.18% error.
It doesn’t really surprise me this one isn’t performing too well, the title doesn’t exactly pop off the page (unless it had been a porn movie) and the animation doesn’t look too great. At least Legend of the Guardians has some of the best animation and 3D I’ve seen in a long, long time.
Result: $4.7 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.106 million, which is $0.594m off for a 12.64% error.
It’s now at $54 million on a $32 million budget. There aren’t any foreign numbers on it yet and I wonder how well a film like this will play overseas. We’ll find out next weekend when it hits the UK and expands worldwide throughout November.
Result: $1.6 million
Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.556 million, which is $0.044m off for a 2.75% error.
Inception is now the only 2010 film to spend more than ten weeks in the top ten as this weekend’s $1.2 million return makes it eleven in a row.

For those wondering The Virginity Hit was a bust and returned only $300,000 from 700 theaters, but Buried did well with $104,500 from 11 theaters making it a $9,500 per theater average. Waiting for “Superman”, however, was the per theater weekend winner, opening in four theaters and taking in $141,000 for $35,250 per. Yowsa!

Result: $1.2 million
Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked

What do you all think out there? Do you think Inception will remain in the top ten or will the $1 million estimate from The Other Guys end up creeping in after actuals are reported? Does anyone want to take an early stab at next week’s predictions with Let Me In, The Social Network and Case 39 hitting theaters?

Weigh in with your thoughts below.

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